Tuesday, September 29, 2009

公司賣殼忙

見到財爺通波仔手術成功,禤中怡祝他早日康復。其實香港人勞勞碌碌,少運動之餘又喜吃肥膩,最近有朋友上班行斜路時,感到心口痛,已覺不妙,幸好主動驗身,方發現心臟有一條血管完全閉塞,另有一條則有部分閉塞,即時安排做手術,避免讓病情惡化,已算萬幸,日後只需享清茶淡飯便可。大家也要注意身體健康。

上周才話大市追落後的啟示,怎知恒指連跌四日,昨日港股當然並非受財爺入院拖累,相信期指轉倉增加多少有玄機,即月期指昨成交7.2萬張,而10月期指成交逾4.2萬張,但上周五的10月期指未平倉合約才5.1萬張,相信周一數字突破6萬張,且看大戶是否積極儲貨。

至於近期最受歡迎的投資,並非財政部所發國債,因為即使是機構性投資者認購,每年息率才3.3厘,實際回報還要望人民幣升值趨勢,相信留給債券基金入貨好了。

原來投資焦點之一是買上市公司的「殼」。見到從事照明產品的瑩輝集團(1163)於2月斥3億元買內地林地後,已經摸不著頭腦,話雖投資額只需付承兌票據和可換股票據,好像不用拿真金白銀收購,但倘若對方行使換股權,試問股東手上的股份攤薄程度有多大。

怎知持現金才9,698萬元、市值才5億元的瑩輝卻再出手高達63.5億元收購河北一個金礦,以及用10.6億元買山東一個金礦,合共就要高達74.1億元之多!

瑩輝當然欠缺足夠現金應付,故大部分代價只需發行可換股票據和承兌票據支付,換股價為每股0.6元,其實是準備賣殼,因為出售該兩個金礦的賣家,日後行使換股權的話,將佔瑩輝擴大後股本的93.8%股權,原大股東股權攤薄至不值一哂。

當然,這個賣殼過程並非一定成功,股價昨日開市卻先抽上0.85元,足足比上周五收市價0.66元急漲278.7%,可惜跟隨大市跳水般衝落0.7元以下,最後收0.69元,僅升4.5%,成交股數又由近期每日逾1,000萬至2,000萬股,大增至1億股,但如果炒即日鮮的選擇高位撈貨,恐怕已被震走了。

另一隻神奇股份是上海聯合水泥(1060),竟然轉為做風馬牛不相及的傳媒業務,以4億元買出版《京華時報》和京華網的京華文化傳播,其中3.5億元又是用可換股票據支付,換股價為1.2元,較停牌時股價0.51元有1.3倍溢價,而日後兌換後可成第二大股東,但只比第一大股東少2.23%而已。

不過,股價經已連跌3日,昨日便大挫12%至0.4元,成交額卻僅400萬元,反映換股價1.2元的溢價更達2倍,不過,你認為賣方出價是慷慨萬分,抑或另有後著呢?

這種發行大量可換股票據作逆向收購,或蛇吞象的併購手法,無疑令新入主的買家省卻做IPO的時間,而原有股東日後可購回舊業務,整個賣殼便告完成,但當中牽涉時間較長,故建議不要落重注,避免股份打回原形便得個殼了。

(9月29日刊於《am730》)

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