Wednesday, September 23, 2009

追落後的啟示

港股昨午還處於窄幅上落,未有明顯方向,但午後恒指開始走低,跌穿21,500點,低見21,491點後,卻又不讓其再調整,先重越21,550點後,更在收市前半小時左右開始「升空」,一條氣衝上21,701點,成為今年第二收市高位。至於即月期指上落波幅亦只有221點,成交未見突出,即月只有5.9萬張成交,而周一未平倉合約為9.4萬張。由於恒指咬住21,000點的上落區域已逾兩周,相信在季度結算臨近時,將有一番對決。

恒指仍靠內地股支撐,又以中國移動(941)氣勢較強,股價連升兩日,收報80.3元,重回一個月前水平,升幅更達2.4%,而全日成交逾3,604萬股中,有約1,200萬股為最後半小時成交,佔全日交投33%比重,成為恒指能夠抽上的主力。

中移動吸納新客戶數目見回升,繼續扮演龍頭角色,成為炒高的借口,畢竟佔恒指比重大,要舞高指數,該股實屬不二之選,但滲透率,即人均擁有流動電話的比率,逐步趨向飽和,日後就要靠控制成本等,才能有增長空間,否則逐漸邁向公用股一隻也。

中國人壽(2628)和工商銀行(1398)股價分別漲1.9%和1.49%,亦帶動恒指推上42點。至於中國石油(857)也不失禮,收市增1.4%至9.38元,其母公司去年曾話在未來12個月,在市場增持該股,累計不超過2%股權,而直至周一為止,經已吸納合共2.42億股A股,未計H股,股權增至86.42%,未知這個貨源歸邊的消息,會否進一步刺激該股股價。

除強勢股外,其他被忽視的落後地產股原來更凌厲,九龍倉(004)以全日近高位的41.15元收市,急增4%,該股價已創一年新高。至於已創一年新高的太古A(019)亦續展現升空之旅,股價連升五日,收市增1.76%至92.5元。另一隻連升5日的藍籌股就是思捷環球(330),昨日收市報53.7元,漲3.8%。

市場看好情緒愈來愈濃,認為新股吸納資金龐大,本港甚至可望勇奪今年全球新股集資金額之冠,而若果認購所凍結的資金(國藥(1099)和中冶金(1618)已鎖逾7,000億元資金)能夠釋放出來,將對後市帶來幫助,況且在十一國慶前夕,股市料獲支持。不過,連落後股也經歷一段不錯的升勢後,能否繼續一條氣衝上22,000點,確實令人憂慮,畢竟未見顯著調整,突如其來的衝擊最可能在最短時間內,發揮最大有威力,不得不防。

題外話,香港中文大學(中大)找來1999年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主、被稱為「歐元之父」的蒙代爾教授(Professor Robert A. Mundell)於明日下午5時於中大校園開講,分析「金融危機及其對國際貨幣體系前途的影響」,揭示金融危機及其對國際貨幣體系前途的影響,為未來建構一個更公平合理的國際貨幣體系提供方向。如果大家有興趣,可於網上登記參加(http://www.cuhk.edu.hk/cpr/mundell/),即使無暇出席,也可看網上直播。

(9月23日刊於《am730》)

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