Tuesday, October 13, 2009

期指高水防有詐

大市承接美股造好而高開124點,抽上21,623點後,便無以為繼,畢竟已經連升5日,恒指經已累升逾1,100點,在21,450點徘徊後,或許見到內地股市微跌,恒指午後開始回落,最終反跌200至21,299點。

至於淡友亦將期指從午後21,500點附近,一口氣推落至21,300點以下,但值得留意的是,現貨於4時收市後,期指卻由21,300點回彈逾100點至21,415點收市,全日僅跌144點。

由於上午期指成交合約為2萬張,而午後成交合約為2.44萬張,較早上成交多22%,是否另有部署,特別是好友準備反擊。同期貨界朋友談起,他從盤路看,大戶挾即市淡倉味道較濃,而期指收市與現貨收市比較,更出現高水達116點情況,從表面看,期指高水,反映大戶看好後市,但再望望現貨成交,主板則只有441億元,似乎未配合這種向上趨勢,故此要小心大戶裝個「勢」,營造利好氣氛。

至於創業板就備受追捧,成交總額竟逾8億元,特別是兩隻配售上市的永恒國際(8351)和江晨國際(8305)股價分別大漲1倍和81%,成交額共逾4.88億元。禤中怡只能提醒,小心接火棒!

踏入夏去秋來的季節,企業又要交第三季成績,由於各地大灑金錢救市,市況好像一片歌舞昇平,即使美國鋁業也可於第三季轉虧為盈,已算有交代,但留意當中有特殊收益。至於同類股份中國鋁業(2600)昨日跟隨大市回落2.6%至8.92元,其實上周已經連升4日,即使以昨日收市價計,依然累升9.8%,而經歷上半年虧損35.22億元人民幣,相信市場亦憧憬該股於第三季轉虧為盈。

其實,除美國巨無霸企業外,中資企業也要開始派第三季成績表,大家都認為內地有4萬億元人民幣湧入市場,國企股業績應不會差,像青島啤酒(168)上周率先講自己第三季業績肯定靚靚,單是盈利將有75%至85%的幅度增長,已屬不錯吧!最重要的是,該集團盈利能夠向上,並非靠重組,大削成本等,而是營業額也有增長所致,反映生意確有改善,即使毛利率或受競爭影響,若能薄利多銷,一樣可以賺取滿意利潤,況且不趁火熱的夏季多做生意,還待何時?

該股昨日便逆市衝上32.5元,即使收市報31.85元,仍漲3.4%,更創1年高位。

可以預期,陸續有內地企業會發出盈利預喜,故需留意這些好消息,像儀征化纖(1033)收市後話第三季業績將虧轉盈,便是一例。其實,於上海交易所上市的青島海信電器中期已多賺1.2倍,但已講明首三季將仍賺逾倍,反映第三季業績續強勁。該集團配合「家電下鄉」政策,發展平板電視機,攻其他三四級市場。當然,每間企業的經營策略各有不同,但碰上大氣候,若果管理層能掌握機遇,理應距離同業平均指標不會太遠。那麼電器股又是否有炒味呢?

(10月13日刊於《am730》)

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