Tuesday, November 17, 2009

新股市場亞洲獨壯旺

這兩周認真忙碌,一來股市和新股市場熱鬧,二來多婚宴喜事要慶祝,忙得特別開心。席間,禤中怡被分配與老行尊一圍,他打趣說:「又話層樓無13呀、同邊啲唔吉利嘅冧巴,其實擺酒咪一樣!」初時聽不明,再望望酒席圍數分布圖,確實是少了4、13和14這三個號碼,果然是樣樣講意頭。

不過,買樓以億元計,更加不能忽略大客戶的心理需要,反正政府幫地產發展商開路,只好勞煩消防員記好每座物業樓層,以免撲錯火、救錯人。至於日後要擺酒的新婚朋友,每圍編號倒不如改為「連生貴子」、「百年好合」和「永結同心」,可能更有意思!

的確,單是新股市場經已叫投資者心花怒放,畢竟下半年非常熱鬧,除了民生銀行(1988)準備搶逾300億元外,金沙中國(1928)亦加入戰團,向市場拿近300億元,單是應付這兩隻重磅股,加上又要炒人民幣升值概念,令本港銀行體系結餘突破3,000億元關口,進入另一個里程碑。

中糧包裝(906)昨日成功掛牌,可惜高開低收,早段抽上7.05元,比定價5.39元大漲30.7%,但之後直插,幸保不失,仍收報6.11元,帳面有13.3%回報已算不俗。至於應否認購新股,禤中怡一向認為初相識新股,葫蘆裡賣甚麼藥亦不清楚,加上這些公司過往帳目亦「執」得企企理理,需時培養感情,故小注考眼光勝過盲目勇進,方為上策。

像08年6月初,挾裕元(551)為母公司名氣而上市的寶勝(3813),中期純利已大減,怎知昨日話全年度更要虧損,試問新股怎會無風險,只不過大家根本無暇閱畢整本電話簿般的招股書而已。該股昨雖升0.8%至1.24元收市,但較招股定價3.05元已蒸發了59.3%市值了。

至於連同中糧包裝,今年以來,已在港交所(388)主板掛牌的新股數目已達47隻,已相等於08年全年主板新上市公司數目!反映今年全年新股數目肯定能夠打破去年數目。無他,去年第四季爆發的金融海嘯,除創業板公司轉板外,集資上市的新股幾近絕跡,自然令人失望,兼且基數較低,較易超越該數目,而對比07年旺市的82隻,其實又並非十分暢旺。

另一方面,今年以來,整體全球新股市場亦非太理想,據湯臣路透統計,整體招股金額835億美元(約6,513億港元),較去年同期仍跌9%,當中美國大挫51%,幸好巴西有間大銀行上市,才令整個美洲區集資額回落19%而已,至歐洲則跌67%,日本則挫64%。

但其他亞洲市場跑贏大市,集資額達492億美元(約3,837億港元),大升65%,澳洲和內地均錄增長。望望集資宗數,更達266宗,佔全球總數372宗的71.5%比重,認真厲害。粗略一計,禤中怡發現已在港上市的新股在年內集資逾1,135億元,即佔全球17.4%比重,相信未來民行和金沙進場後,香港分分鐘奪得全球之冠也說不定。

(11月17日刊於《am730》)

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