Tuesday, December 08, 2009

航空股趁平擴張

見到恒指回落173點至22,324點,走勢與內地股市背馳,兼且成交只有逾614億元,不要以為市況轉弱,其實是其他消息股炒個不亦樂乎。富士康(2038)獲大摩繼續看好,更大幅上調目標價,由7.5元增至9.8元,並維持「增持」評級,主因又是諾基亞訂單及智能手機訂單增加。禤中怡早前聽廠家朋友的市場狀況所言非虛,股價昨日立即「升空」,曾高見8.34元,收市仍漲近17%至8.3元,輕易成為藍籌升幅之冠,可見大摩威力驚人。

另一隻造好的藍籌股就是國泰航空(293),逆市漲2.2%至14.42元。其實,航空公司經營環境似乎有改善跡象,從觀察了解,如早前有投資賓架朋友要接待遠自歐洲的基金大客,可見商務市場轉好,而另一朋友剛從南韓乘國泰班機回港,也表示航班爆滿,還以為大家慶祝聖誕而提早外遊。

禤中怡本來亦打算安排於農曆新年與雙親往新加坡走一趟,可惜旅行社朋友回覆,機位相當緊張,單是一張來回機票已索價5,000元!無錯,只是機票而已,尚未計及酒店等開支,面對此情此景,只好打消念頭,另擇日子再出發,幸好雙親亦體諒。

國際航空運輸協會(IATA)亦發現,10月國際航班有所改善,客運需求比去年同期增長0.5%;貨運雖跌0.5%,但比9月的5.4%跌幅已見收窄。載客率和載貨率均恢復至衰退前水平,分別為78%和54.1%。不過,貨運運力因機隊規模下降而跌4.9%,而客運機隊續擴張1.8%,新飛機交付量遠多於飛機存儲或退役量,故市場供應多,收益自然仍有壓力,如票價自年中開始回升,但仍比去年同期低20%。但從另一角度看,反映機票亦有機會因需求增加而續回升。

市道改善,航空公司的消息陸續有來,上周已經有中國國航(753)想趁深圳航空碰上壞消息出手,趁深航實際持有人李澤源因「經濟犯罪」接受有關當局調查,安排其副總裁樊澄任命為深航黨委書記。國航擁有深航25%的股權,市場料併購有望,觸發該股股價昨日亦升3.4%至6.31元,見一年新高。

國航上周還向澳門航空注資1.5億元,同時向部分股東買舊股,一下子成為持有80.8625%的控制性股東,可以大展拳腳,反映航空公司趁勢擴充。除國航外,另外兩間內地航空股亦惹憧憬,因東方航空(670)又有明年於上海舉行世博的利好因素,而南方航空(1055)更有廣州舉辦亞運會帶來的額外客流量,無疑為市場提供新概念了。

即使是日本航空(JAL)重組,亦吸引兩間美國航空公司爭奪,便可見趁機入市的重要性,美國航空(American Airlines)出手便達11億美元(約85.8億港元) ,較對手Delta及SkyTeam所組成財團的10億美元(約78億港元)為高,儘管日本航空半年蝕1,312億日圓(約113億港元),但能夠低位入市,兼可進軍亞洲市場,同業競爭對手又怎會放棄這個難得的機會呢?

(12月8日刊於《am730》)

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