Tuesday, December 29, 2009

復甦的海市蜃樓

這個聖誕過得不太快樂,因為見到劉曉波被判入獄11年,令人驚覺經濟起飛的同時,政治發展根本出現背馳,一黨在內地獨大,而在全球話事權上亦佔重要一席後,究竟如何駕馭這頭政治機器,避免讓其蠶食大家從經濟中產生的財富呢?聽來好像風馬牛不相及,但若果持有不同意見便被拘捕,試問國企股股東投反對票,或批評國企管理層,又會否以言入罪呢?請大家慶祝節日時,想想在獄中的劉曉波和其他身陷牢獄的維權人士!

言歸正傳,大埔白石角兩幅地皮成交價低於市場預期,對比有樂觀的測量師估計達每方呎9,000元計,現時每方呎成交價逾7,100元已算克制,當然,可建樓面還有「發水」空間,意味每方呎成本更低。

未知淡友是否趁拍賣未見十分踴躍,成交遜預期做藉口,加上大市成交稀疏關係出擊,恒指在拍賣地皮期間,從21,700點,直插至低於21,500點,即使略為反彈,收市亦無法扭轉劣勢,最終反跌36點至21,480點,成交額僅380億元。即月期指收報21,467點,跌73點,收市僅比現貨低水13點,只有5.7萬張成交,臨近結算,轉倉盤料增。

至於歐美受風雪吹襲,大家已經為聖誕和新年銷情打定輸數,萬事達卡旗下一個部門統計發現,美國聖誕假期零售銷售增長3.6%,看似表現不俗,查實來自網上購物的增幅成為主要推動來源,加上08年發生金融海嘯,銷售基數自然偏低,故這個增幅實際不算標青。當地零售協會亦預測,這個佔全年銷售額25%至40%比重的假期銷售數字,將比08年同期倒退1%,可見他們同樣看淡。

即使大企業的管理人員亦對明年不敢掉以輕心,如美國波士頓諮詢集團向每年營業額10億美元(約78億港元)、業務遍布7個國家的企業管理層作調查時,發現共434名高層對明年前景仍感艱巨,68%預期利潤水平進一步下降;64%認為增長更為困難;87%更認為消費者的價格敏感度將會有所提升,意味生意依然難做。

那麼管理人員如何解決生意難做的局面呢?約50%至70%會選擇更容易的策略,如加強與主要客戶的關係、減少行政和公幹開支、與供應商重訂合約條件,以及減少存貨和工資等。

不過,只有28%將削減勞工成本作為明年首要任務,而企業控制現金流轉,甚至是債務重組屬優先處理的,亦只佔26%和16%,即使是退出非核心業務的亦只佔13%。

這些企業只採取這些短線的經營調整策略,是否會有足夠的防禦措施,應付艱難的環境呢?現在有銀行放水支持,當然問題不大,但若不處理好本身資產負債情況,體質稍為弱一點,也難生存下來。

有趣的是,更有37%以擴大產量,以及收購為優先出擊重點,似乎認為衰退已過去,但這些管理人員如此樂觀,究竟他們是出色企業的領導人才,抑或是押錯注呢?

(12月29日刊於《am730》)

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