Wednesday, December 23, 2009

天價買地怕抽水

港股開高收低,但實際上落波幅只有200點而已,再望望全日成交額,再縮減至逾460億元,可見假期氣氛濃厚至極,大家等待收爐。期指亦欠顯著波動,即日鮮恐怕只能搵餐茶餐,因為成交合約亦僅逾6.55萬張,未算突出。

不過,今日新股市場依然熱鬧,太平洋保險(2601) 和華昱高速(1823)齊齊掛牌,相信又會迫爆交易大堂。見到暗盤價表現麻麻,加上交投淡靜,且看投資賓架如何力撐不失。太平洋保險由瑞銀做保薦人,早前已講瑞銀幫11間中國公司上市,有5間公司的股價在上市首日便潛水,有4間更一直處於招股定價以下,且看今日能否力保不失。至於華昱由瑞穗證券做保薦人,未能有跡可尋。

禤中怡向證券界朋友講聖誕快樂,這位老友亦不怕股市跌,實行「百無禁忌」,更話聖誕佳節期間,將會與太座前往熱帶小島,享受一個火辣辣的假期,令人羨慕。怎知朋友話,其實有苦自己知,因手頭已有兩三間公司在手,準備排隊在明年來港上市,現在要盡快安排如何包裝,以取得投資者支持。

朋友話,按照傳統,新一輪新股潮最快於2月底附近開始,因為公司完成12月年結後,需時計算整盤帳目,然後才能公諸於世。他指由於公司招股陸續有來,恐怕明年會比今年更忙。禤中怡見到安永預測明年本港新股集資額較今年再增50.4%至3,700億元,可見巨無霸與小企業掛牌數目只會有增無減,特別是中國農業銀行和俄鋁落實登陸港交所(388)的話,肯定引起哄動。

昨日市場先翻起大浪,3間以廣東為基地的內房股齊齊拍住上,組成財團,成功擊退其他外省對手,以破全國紀錄的價錢買入廣州亞運會地皮項目,成為淡市中的巨浪,畢竟花費高達255億元人民幣,即使先付一半,每人也要拿出42.5億元人民幣做首期,絕對不是小數目,難免會令市場擔心,他們要抽水應付。

財團成員之一的富力地產(2777)股價於下午3時從13.6元直插至13.34元,收市雖只跌0.4%,但短短一個小時的成交股數已相等於全日成交總數近三成!至於一向受四叔支持的碧桂園(2007)亦是財團成員之一,可惜股價同樣於午後被推落至2.8元,只是收市被「推高」幾格,收2.82元,只跌0.02元。雅居樂(3383)全日雖報升2.5%至10.64元,算是財團中表現最佳,但其實早市曾衝上11.06元,尾市反而收窄升幅。中銀國際早前話雅居樂手持現金45億元人民幣,剛好與應付地價的一半金額相同。

做生意自然用槓桿,即靠貸款應付,但這次買地的支出,究竟如何融資呢?因內地政府正連環出擊,控制樓市變成巨型泡沫,但3巨頭卻以高於市場預期的200億元人民幣逾27.5%投得地皮,銀行望着這個商機,但又要望著中央眼色,認真矛盾。恐怕市場又會湧現新一輪的內房股逃亡潮了。

(12月23日刊於《am730》)

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