Tuesday, January 05, 2010

政策市又獻新猷

港股迎接今年首個交易日,恒指開市抽上22,000點後,「空軍」便出動,推低指數,收市反跌49點至21,823點,但成交未見突出,主板成交額只逾485億元。望望即月期指,亦跌124點至21,801點,但上周未平倉合約才近6.5萬張,相信大戶想食大餐,也要儲點貨才會出擊。

大戶轉而向受惠政策市相關股份埋手,像內地加強控制稀土開採和生產後,代表新項目難過關,現有經營商自然減少競爭,中國稀土(769)立即受追捧,成交股數從上周才逾200萬股,一下子驟增至2.79億股,令成交額超過5.48億元。

該股股價更厲害,全日走勢像直線般向上,早上股價由上周四收市的1.58元,衝上接近1.96元後,下午更破2元,收市報2.2元,大升39.2%之多。

該股大手成交亦逾200宗,有大戶於2.05元掃300萬股,涉615萬元,然後於2.08和2.09元各有100萬股買入,甚至有大戶斥440萬元在2.2元元吸納200萬股。競爭減少雖屬好消息,但政府同時將提高耐火黏土和螢石資源稅稅率,究竟對該股成本影響有多大,值得研究。

至於上周政府已提出停止批准興建生產維生素C的新項目,以避免產能過剩後,亦令現有經營者受惠,故生產該產品的中國製藥(1093)於昨日早段還處窄幅波動,午後卻再次逆市而上,最高見4.48元,收市則報4.42元,只漲2.55%,最重要是成交股數再增至逾500萬股,反映續受追捧。

另一個政策市的利好消息,就是國務院再次提出發展海南島,如要做旅遊改革試點、海島休閒,並且要加大南海油氣等開發,目標是於2015年將旅遊產值增至佔生產總值逾8%。雖然是翻炒,但提出發展就代表有概念了,市場即憧憬航權開放、離島免稅等政策一旦實施,大家就發財了,甚至可以挑戰香港的免稅天堂地位,總之會有不同利好因素出籠,吸引投資者找題材炒作。

首先,會憧憬往海南島的旅客增多,在港上市的海南美蘭機場(357)自然因會被視為受惠對象,因為飛機客流量增多,而於海南島設有航線的南方航空(1055)也會有好處,該公司於去年11月增加飛往海南的航班至每周24班,即使開放航權,其他對手也要需時加入競爭。

即使投資房地產和休閒設施的也有利,像中信泰富(267)於該省萬寧市有個度假區項目,樓面面積達165.3萬方米,料由今年起陸續落成,自然是緊跟潮流。至於在廣東省一帶發展的雅居樂(3383),原來亦於該島清水灣持有一個房地產項目70%,單是樓面面積便達985萬方米。
曾幾何時,海南島與倒賣劃上等號,於1985年曾發生矚目的「倒賣汽車事件」,大量倒賣進口車,所涉案件逾700宗,積壓的物資更逾11億元人民幣,以當時的價格水平而言,著實龐大。事件剛好發生25年,希望今次政策對辦。

(1月5日刊於《am730》)

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