Tuesday, March 02, 2010

友邦獨立夢碎

昨日可算是金融機構的驚喜大日子,首先是滙豐控股(005)和旗下恒生銀行(011) 派09年度成績表,但日前見到證券商對滙控的盈利預測,竟然由倒退35%,至增長逾倍也有,等如財經演員話恒指將會在10,000點至30,000點上落般,連專業的分析員也摸不著頭腦,普通股民又怎可計算呢?

獅子銀行全年盈利只升2%,可能全靠交稅大幅減少24.24億美元(約189億港元)才錄增長,而純利表現遠不及分析員普遍預期,應該不是齊齊營造業績造好的假象,暗中部署淡倉,然後讓市場先行炒上,待消息公布後,一口氣推低股價吧!畢竟有「防火牆」,又有獨立運作性質,那麼為何滙控業績令金融界跌眼鏡呢?睇好前景的,或許可以視作為獅子已跌落谷底,兼且已著地,準備鼓足氣力,向上一躍,成功走出暗谷。

獅子銀行日常經營業務持續倒退勉強仍可接受,但估不到市況好轉,貸款減值及其他信貸風險準備仍續增15.51億美元(約120億港元),恐怕美國業務難短暫好轉了吧。至於中東業務稅前盈利貢獻也急劇倒退74%,加上希臘財困問題未停,實在令人擔心業務進一步惡化。

另外,該集團還出現一項「已產生保險賠償及投保人負債變動淨額」,涉及高達124.5億美元(約971.1億港元),大幅增長達80%之多,究竟是保險業務太進取,還是有甚麼特別損失,值得研究。

談到保險,相信英國保誠(Prudential Plc)半途出擊,向美國國際集團(AIG)收購正準備分拆來港上市的友邦(AIA) ,將屬經典收購交易之一,作價355億美元(約2,769億港元),當中現金部分達250億美元(約1,950億港元),其餘用保誠股份支付。

據投資界消息話,在友邦上市計劃中,AIG計劃減持49%股份,希望拿回約250億美元,即整間AIA的估值即達510億美元(約3,978億港元),反映保誠今次可能快刀斬亂麻,實行支付相同數額的現金供AIG還債,而實際總代價卻是原本上市估值打個七折,初步看來,保誠收購有著數。未知是否受同業購併或大市氣氛好影響,宏利金融(945)昨日也升1.55%至144元收市。

禤中怡立即打探友邦方面的反應,似乎聽到併購消息也感驚訝,畢竟按照原來計劃,可以獨立上市,終於擺脫以往被「阿媽」(AIG)的財務困境所產生的負面陰影,讓投保人心裡不用擔心保費去向,而管理層也可順理成章,有更大話事權,兼且有機會獲配股權,齊齊分享公司未來成果。

可惜,今次卻慘變寄人籬下,成為競爭對手的附屬,而最令人擔心的是,兩間保險公司合併後,還需要兩個人事部門、兩個會計和兩個行政部門嗎?

或許公司名稱已預料這個轉變,就是成為「友」鄰的城「邦」,雖有主權,可惜始終是其他公司的一部分而已。

(3月2日刊於《am730》)

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