Wednesday, February 24, 2010

交行加入搶錢

財爺今早公布財政預算案,大家估計出現財政盈餘機會十分大,單是地價和去年股市好轉所帶來印花稅收入,已豬籠入水,證明地產和金融的龍頭地位始終無法改變,而bottom line有正數,相信比新加坡的財政預算赤字為佳。

不過,這個競爭對手的財政預算案亦為市民提出一些稅制改變,如自置物業徵收的稅項由過往按全年估計租值收4%等,改為累進計算方法,首6,000坡元(約3.3萬港元)免稅、之後的5.9萬坡元(約32.5萬港元)才徵收4%,餘額則徵收6%,減輕業主的負擔。

此外,為鼓勵照顧年邁雙親,將免稅部分亦提高,升幅更介乎23%至40%之多。政府又提出新計劃,鼓勵僱主安排低收入員工接受再培訓,包括津貼學習期間的薪酬和學費,而學員完成培訓後,每年亦獲400坡元(約2,204港元)津貼。商界方面,政府再泵15億坡元(約82.6億港元)予國家研究基金以支持R&D,即科研投資也,而天使投資者(Angel Investor,主要是個人投資者參與投資新公司)向新公司作10萬坡元(約55萬港元)以上的股權投資,將獲免稅最多50%,實行支持創意產業。究竟我們的財爺又會否有新構思讓市場驚喜呢?

至於港股在財政預算案公布前夕,先面對期指臨近結算,即月期指交投大增至12.8萬張,比前日多近九成,並續挾淡倉,由開低見20,100點後,差不多以接近直線方式抽上至逾20,700點,足足彈逾600點之多,一個早上已殺個片甲不留。

另一個焦點就是有小滙豐之稱的交通銀行(3328)終於步招商銀行(3968)後塵,收市後話,將透過A及H股供股計劃,巨額抽水高達420億元人民幣,實行趁勢搶錢,但仍有待股東批准,包括計劃每10股供不超過1.5股。持有該股的主要股東滙豐控股(005)參與供股的機會相信很大。

對比招行早於去年8月已經提出供股建議,直至前日方落實供股比例,為每10股供1.3股,屬原來每10股供不超過2.5股的中間水平,但所花時間已經有足足半年,反映內銀股要集資,程序著實多,相信按照招行現時的進度,交行要完成供股,分分鐘已經是明年的事情了。

由於要面對供股建議,招行股價自落實提出該集資計劃後,由去年8月14日的18.32元起,至昨日收市的18.94元計,累積升幅只有3.3%而已,相信供股事項多少對股價構成陰影,畢竟基金如何落注也難計數,且看供股比例落實後,能否重獲垂青。

另一隻巨無霸中國銀行(3988)早於上月已話有集資需要,若果部分內銀股搶錢成功,不但消除不明朗因素,本身的資本實力增強,放貸能力自然也水漲船高,屆時哪怕人民銀行再調高存款準備金率,可能這亦是市場仍看好內銀股的原因。至於還未掛牌的中國農業銀行看到這種大場面,會否要再想想有甚麼新穎賣點,加入搶錢行列呢?

(2月24日刊於《am730》)

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