Wednesday, March 24, 2010

半新股保薦人有得震

恒指周一跌得多,昨日開市即挾一挾,但始終難擺脫上落市局面,衝上278點至21,211點後便轉牛皮,早上指數波幅100點左右。直至午後又見淡友出擊,直跌163點,令全日升幅差不多全部蒸發,收市僅報20,987點,增54點而已。

中港兩地除了齊齊面對沙塵暴的吹襲外,雙雙也要解決民眾提出的置業難問題。特區政府加豪宅印花稅,兼推居屋和夾屋貨尾,實行用行動回應市民的要求,而中央亦持續出手降溫,國土資源部便規定,在用地計劃公布前,不得出讓住宅用地,而該計劃將於4月公布詳情,包括住房和保障性住宅的土地供應計劃。該部門更要求樓價上漲過快、過高和商品住宅空置率高的城市,需嚴控大單位的土地供應。

內地要增加一般住宅和保障性住宅的供應,解決平民百姓的置業問題,但嚴控大單位供應,會否進一步引發供應短缺的影響?所謂高空置率,可能出現假象,因為部分投資者寧願不租出單位以減省麻煩,讓單位慢慢升值。與居於九龍站上蓋物業的朋友談起,她也提到隔鄰有些單位長期未見有人出入,及後方知由內地人持有,根本無意放租,實行等升值更方便。

內房股則續受壓,藍籌新貴華潤置地(1109)單日挫4.5%至15.68元,而SOHO中國(410)和合景泰富(1813)亦齊跌逾2%,而可能被中遠減持的遠洋地產(3377)也再回落1.9%至6.61元。

另一個憂慮的股份類別,可能是去年上市的新股,睇《金融時報》話,本港證監會正就去年的新股上市活動中,調查有關協助上市的投資銀行和保薦人,是否對申請上市的公司採取足夠的盡職審查(due diligence)。可知道去年新股在港集資額高達318億美元(約2,480億港元),但所謂龍蛇混雜,多少靠市旺做靚盤數趁勢掛牌,一時間也難發覺,反正符合規定便無法判斷出來,但日後打回原形,便會對股東構成影響。

去年的確有些「恐怖」個案,甚至有些股價依然「潛水」,於去年7月上市的就有兩隻,如秦發集團(866)上市翌月,公布中期純利竟大跌94%!該股昨昨收市報2.47元,比招股價2.52元仍低1.98%;而琥珀能源(090)於去年11月竟發盈利警告,利潤將大降,該股將於本月26日開董事會審閱業績,且看會有多少跌幅,股價本身亦未造好,昨日收市報1.61元,比招股定價1.66元,帳面依然損失3%。

即使浮上水面的亦不覺得有高回報,例如去年4月上市的銀基集團(886)於同年10月講明,受季節因素影響,利潤將預期下跌,之後公布半年盈利挫48%之多,昨收報3.49元,只比招股定價3.45元高約1.1%而已。

同證券界朋友談起,他話近期新股孖展息低,客戶也想認購新股一博,但抽中幾隻賺了的甜頭,分分鐘一隻獲配十足申請股份,然後股價跌三成,之前所獲回報就「一鋪清袋」,奈何客戶積極進取,而且若日後股價真的大升,之前的好言相勸豈不倒人米,所以只好繼續提供服務,希望客戶贏錢而歸,讓他也可多賺點買賣佣金吧!

(3月24日刊於《am730》)

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