Wednesday, March 10, 2010

歐洲市也要望望

港股衝上逾1個月高位後,即見窄幅上落,全日只有149點高低波幅而已,令恒指收市只漲10點至21,207點。由於以21,300點為收回價的恒指熊證多達13隻,現時距離收回價僅0.44%,坐隔夜盤的相信如坐針氈。

除內房股外,連巨無霸中國人壽(2628)亦將09年度純利預告增幅從50%大幅調高至2倍,股價即彈2.9%至36.25元,並帶動中國平安(2318)和中國財險(2328)分別漲2.9%和0.5%,太平洋保險(2601)也升1.1%,成市場焦點。

人人看好亞洲之際,美國表面仍剛強,又有總統幫手,讓金融機構迅速恢復元氣,且看連美國國際集團(AIG)等了一年,才於較好景時一口氣在一周間出售兩件重頭貨友邦(AIA)和美國以外的保險業務ALICO,合共涉510億美元(約3,978億港元),紓緩財困。

相反跟中美等齊齊從直升機上灑銀紙的歐洲地區卻陷入愁眉苦面的日子,因應付金融海嘯而提供的資金,連同以往累積下來的政府負債,債務重擔可想而知,自然成為計時炸彈,近期歐元更成為拋售對象,兼被大戶看淡。

禤中怡一位商界朋友便話,最近往法國巴黎老佛爺百貨(Galeries Lafayette Paris France),突被一名操半鹹淡廣東話的女士拉着,嚇了他一跳,當然不是飛來艷福,原來這位素昧謀面的女士竟要求他代買幾款名牌手袋,因為Quota(配額)已用完,但朋友最終婉拒。朋友話,除愛慕名牌外,歐元匯價回落相信亦是提升大款掃貨動力之一。

不過,歐洲市場又是否如此不濟?金融海嘯發生時,買甚麼地區的股票也難獨善其身,但今年股市便走勢各異,《紐約時報》統計指,今年以來歐洲股票確已跌約5%,而且經濟增長速度更可能屬全球最慢地區之一,年增長料1%而已。但回首01年至09年間,摩根士丹利資本國際歐洲指數(MSCIE)每年回報仍達約7%水平。至於德國DAX指數和法國CAC40指數於今年累積下跌僅1.8%和1.2%,而英國富時100指數更累增3.5%,縱使未算大幅反彈,但亦非一蹶不振。

至於歐洲區股票的股息回報率或許提供多一重保障,因為該比率處於逾3%水平,較美國標普500股份的2%股息回報率為佳。當然,投資價值下跌時,投資者便會有所擔憂,而不願流入資金,但忽視這個市場也不一定是好事。

此外,歐元兌美元匯價於今年以來亦已回落6%,會否再跌難以預測,但評級機構惠譽指,希臘的「BBB+」評級並未計及其獲得其他國家援助的因素,並認為希臘主權債務出現違約風險低,反映市場並非一面倒看淡。

近日同另一位朋友夜宵,他提到想換車,禤中怡自然鼓勵換掉部已屬老爺車級的日本舊愛,因可省維修支出和慳油嘛!至於朋友心目中的新歡,竟是歐洲名牌,原來索價竟然不用20萬元,難怪心動,相信歐元匯價回落,多少對歐洲出口來說,也非壞事吧!

(3月10日刊於《am730》)

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