Tuesday, May 04, 2010

內房股累跌一仆一碌

中國人民銀行又再收緊銀根,選擇周日公布今年第三度調高存款準備金率0.5個百分點至17%,相信大家已經打定輸數,昨日港股難免遭殃。恒指率先開低309點至20,811點後,始終無法重越21,000點,收市報20,811點,跌1.4%,成交額卻縮至497億多元,拋售未算太嚴重。

除了大笨象滙豐控股(005)拖累恒指回落76點外,四隻內銀股加兩隻內房股中國海外(688)和華潤置地(1109)已合共推低恒指81點。

其實,回顧4月,恒指高低位介乎20,763至22,388點,即上落波幅1,625點,即使與3月底收市價計,在整個4月,恒指只累跌131點而已。同散戶朋友談起,佢話上月一眾師奶股神(並非劇集)又再在金魚缸「坐鎮」,皆因大家齊炒波幅,見跌得多就入貨,升得多就沽,一隻細價股賺萬餘元屬等閒,實行雞仔啄米密密啄,故多成功搵食。

不過,自去年12月內地中央經濟工作會議提出,今年要增加商品房的供應開始,正式揭開調控樓市的序幕後,今年1月10日國務院辦公廳更發聲明,要加強房地產市場調控,內房股已開始走樣,若果想趁低撈底的話,可能宜短炒不宜長揸了。

略為統計26隻內房股表現,今年以來的股價明顯跑輸大市,且看恒指過去4個月的累積跌幅才4.85%,但竟然有多達10隻內房股的累積跌幅介乎11%至20%之間,更有12隻累跌超過20%之多。

談到場面最恐怖的,非首創置業(2868)莫屬,股價昨日首當其衝大瀉5%至2.26元,自今年以來,股價經已累積蒸發了35.4%之多。近期北京市政府推出壓抑樓市措施12條細則,對這間以北京為基地的股份來說,股價難免再受壓。

至於去年11月底才上市的花樣年(1777)亦相當懂得伸手之道,上市還未夠半年,已率先於上月底公布擬發行優先票據,但股價便不是那麼像樣了,昨日亦回落3.4%至1.41元,不但較招股價2.18元大幅潛水,今年以來也累挫34.4%,投資者損手不菲。

有「民企之父」稱號的張化橋於08年9月離開深圳控股(604)後,該股亦似失去明星光環,股價由年初的3.3元,向下跌至昨日的2.33元,再見今年最低位收市,若果年初買入,又失去29.3%的價值了。

那些出手重鎚買地的發展商又如何呢?且看廣東民企3兄弟於去年年底斥255億元人民幣,買下廣州亞運城住宅項目後,其中碧桂園(2007)伸手要錢,俾年息11.25厘去發行優先票據,集資5.5億美元(約42.9億港元)。股價昨日亦下降3.7%至2.34元,今年以來累跌19% ,但相對另外兩兄弟富力地產(2777)和雅居樂(3383)分別累挫27.8%和21.8%,已算輕傷了。

市場上又有否逆市奇葩呢?SOHO中國(410)昨日便未有跟隨大市回落,股價反升0.39%至4.28元,而今年以來累積增長1.9%,而汪世忠做主席的中國地產集團(1838)更於過去四個月錄得2.1%增幅,莫非他們有甚麼過人之處,不受大市氣候影響?

(5月4日刊於《am730》)

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