Wednesday, March 31, 2010

半新股現形記

上周提到證監會要查新股的保薦人,是否為去年申請上市的公司,做好盡職審查後,洪良國際(946)昨日開市前,便遭證監會指示停牌。該股於去年12月24日平安夜日子才掛牌,停牌前收市報2.06元,與招股定價2.15元計,股價仍潛水4.1%,投資者仍未「平安」。

證監會最喜歡以不評論個別事件為由,讓市場猜度究竟發生甚麼問題,股東也只有等待一途。至於洪良國際唯一保薦人為兆豐資本,雖然並非歐美巨型投行,但兆豐資本母公司兆豐金融集團來頭也不小,聲稱為台灣第二大之金控集團,資產總值高達610億美元(約4,758億港元)。

其實,有些新股的業績也陸續現形。例如於去年7月掛牌的琥珀能源(090)早已發盈利警告,講明09年盈利無法達到招股預測的6,200萬元人民幣,但令人失望的是,實際份成績表既欠缺盈利增長外,盈利更要倒退35.5%至只得2,152萬元人民幣,每股盈利僅0.06元人民幣,兼且上市一年時間未夠,便派發末期息0.017元,話雖才逾700萬元而已,究竟是想安慰小股東的不滿,還是讓大股東可以有真金白銀落袋?

至於同樣在去年7月上市的中國秦發集團(866)份09年度業績亦認真麻麻,純利大幅倒退60.8%,至1.2億元人民幣,但望一望,未覺該股發出盈利警告的通告。最令人遺憾的是,該股去年中期純利已經大挫94%,嚇死人之餘,亦沒有發盈利警告。至於翻閱該集團那本招股書,始終找不到其09年盈利預測,若果找到的話,請告知。

秦發份業績除了盈利「驚人」,原來09年營業額不及08年,但直至去年底,應收貿易帳及應收票據卻大增1.8倍至5.65億元人民幣,其中一個月內的應收帳款更高達5億元,那麼這些「生意」是否在09年度內最後一個月才做的呢?再望清楚該股有抵押貸款亦激增1.4倍至19.12億元人民幣,或許與資本承擔從08年的5,085萬元人民幣顯著升至15.4億元人民幣吧!該股上市集資約6.6億元,但去年底現金和銀行結餘僅3.7億元人民幣,總借貸卻大增逾10億元人民幣,至22.4億元人民幣,其中20.1億元人民幣於1年內償還,認真積極進取!

另一隻半新股卡姆丹克(712)份業績也醜怪,這間於去年10月底掛牌的公司,於09年純利回落81%至2,494萬元人民幣,但其實毋須大驚小怪,因為該股曾作盈利預測,並講明09年盈利將不少於2,390萬元人民幣,故此實際盈利表現已經超越目標逾百萬元人民幣!只是超越的數目不及08年所賺1.3億元人民幣而已。

不過,在該集團公布業績前夕,非執行董事何昕卻於本月26日突然辭去該職位,雖無意見不合等問題,但難免惹來揣測,該股周一逆市下跌後,急急做澄清,話何昕辭職,主要獲另一間公司提名做董事會成員,希望退任專注新職位喎!何昕辭職的時間,代表他沒有參與該股於周一所開董事會會議,即份業績沒有他的份兒,但既然早知開會時間,為何走得如此匆忙?該股昨收報2.12元,股價已連跌兩日,累積下跌3.6%。

(3月31日刊於《am730》)

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