Tuesday, May 25, 2010

小輪搶灘

恒指昨日承接美股於上周五反彈逾百點,早上已曾抽上迫近19,750點,直至午後賣地開始,見有人舉牌承接,內地股市又大幅反彈,恒指曾高見19,757點,但收市只報19,667點,微增121點,望清楚,原來兩隻重磅股逆市下挫,滙豐控股(005)跌1.3%至71.65元收市,而中國移動(941)也回落0.6%至74.2元,他們已令恒指跌50點,無形中㩒低恒指升勢,而即月期指更於現貨收市後10分鐘,再推低至19,548點收市,比現貨低水擴大至119點,莫非淡友仍部署新一輪淡倉?

賣地成績算不俗,畢竟有人出價,連長江實業(001)也想趁勢執平地般,但料不到由恒基地產(012)系旗下香港小輪(050)派代表奪得,市場直至差不多3時30分才知道真正買家身份,望住香港小輪股價立刻有反應,從6.6元開始推上,最高曾見6.66元,收市報6.64元,升2.4%,最厲害的是,直至3時15分,交投相當疏落,僅8.5萬股成交,隨後成交增加,全日成交股數17.1萬股,即最後45分鐘交投,竟佔全日50.3%比重之多!且看今日會否續受追捧。

今日還要留意英國保誠(Prudential)以介紹形式在港星兩地掛牌,各方嚴陣以待,除了港交所(388)推出多項措施,包括安排指定交易商維持買賣秩序,避免亞洲果業(073)去年以介紹形式掛牌,引致股價大幅下瀉的場面重蹈覆轍。至於新加坡交易所亦準備莊家提供買賣報價以提高流通量等,而麥格理有隻認購窩輪亦同時登場,行使價為8美元(約62.4港元)。且看能否讓投資者帶來驚喜。同類在港掛牌的宏利金融(945)昨日卻逆市回落4.4%,收報125.9元。

泰國股市經過兩日特別「休市」後,昨日終復市,曼谷SET指數亦重挫2.7%至744.31點。這個新興市場前景如何?且看有新興市場之父的鄧普頓基金負責人麥樸思(Mark Mobius)在博客所言,曼谷SET指數自3月15日,即紅衫軍開始示威,直至上周三為止,依然錄得4%的增幅,反映情況並非想象般差。

其實,自泰國於1932年走向君主立憲制,由國會和總理管治國家後,當地已歷經多達20次成功和失敗的政變,更出現過27位總理,以及大量暴力示威等,最終不論是本地投資者,及來自海外的投資者也司空見慣,不會在該段時間做沽家。

他更說,除曼谷核心地區外,其他地區的商業運作如常,數周前中央銀行更將經濟增長調高至4.3%至5.8%,皆因受環球需求強勁帶動。至於3月本地投資總額按年率計,更上升達18%,無他,出口企業需提升產能以應付需求增長也!此外,本地消費似乎仍不俗,以年率計,3月錄得8.7%增幅。

至於最受關注的旅遊業,他認為無可避免會受到影響,但該行業佔經濟僅6%至7%比重,加上紅衫軍選擇在傳統旅遊淡季示威,多少減低對當地經濟的衝擊。面對便宜的物價、豪華的酒店享受和那個舒適的spa,禤中怡也相信,香港人肯定會很快重投這個熱帶國家的懷抱,只是擔心紅衫軍會改變策略,以打游擊方式,繼續抗爭,最終肯定成為雙輸局面。

(5月25日刊於《am730》)

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