Wednesday, May 12, 2010

賣地淡地產股遭殃

歐美股市周一升勢比亞洲股市更凌厲,法國CAC40指數大漲9.6%,而英德兩國股市亦增逾5%,令美國道指的3.9%升幅相形見拙,但仍屬過去逾13個月以來的單日最大升幅。

可惜,歐洲驚魂甫定,又到中國公布4月通脹升2.8%,屬今年最大增幅,新增貸款也達7,740億元人民幣,難免讓市場憂慮,人民銀行最終要加快調高利率,冷卻過熱經濟。

儘管加息屬市場預期之內,但仍成為淡戶推低大市的上佳藉口,包含內銀股的國企股指數受衝擊,令國企股指數開市半小時後,便從11,600點附近開始走低,迫近11,350點才略為反彈,但淡友午市一開更推落至11,250點,空軍又勝一仗,國指期貨全日回落215點,至11,334點,成交合約逾5萬張,較國企股指數低水175點,營造續走低的趨勢。

另一個焦點是午後舉行的土地拍賣,這是政府公布「九招十二式」等規管樓市措施後首次賣地,但望著會場人丁單薄,加上是次拍賣的大嶼山東涌地皮勾地價已經達28.76億元,相信早已預期,該地皮只屬幾個大型地產商之爭,中小型地產商根本難以匹敵,因為論實力,根本難以與那些巨無霸地產商比。

見到競投氣氛淡靜,開始5分鐘後才承接3口價,南豐更要自己不斷承價,因為無其他人舉牌也!這邊廂的股市立刻有反應,藍籌地產股應聲下挫,最厲害的,非曾舉牌競投的新世界發展(017)莫屬,午後不久曾低見12.7元,即開市以來下跌3.7%,如只與上午收市價12.84元比較,更一下子急插1.09%之多,收市也要回落2.57%至12.86元。至於新鴻基地產(016)股價也在午後初段,遭推落至101.5元最低位,較開市以來報跌3.6%,更比上午收市價103元顯著不見了1.5元,即下瀉幅度達1.45%,認真厲害,收市仍下滑1.8%至103.4元。6隻藍籌地產股成交總額逾19億元,而他們的沽空總額共4.12億元。

雖然南豐最終在差不多獨自競投下,以34.2億元投得該地皮,比勾地價高18.9%,兼避過地皮被收回的場面,但整體表現難免會惹來揣測。首先,地產發展商早前被政府迫得喘不過氣,又要遵守新賣樓規定,提高賣樓透明度等,故發展商是次實行採取半放棄態度,僅有兩三個競投者舉牌,志在向政府表態,倘若地產這個經濟重要支柱一旦遭動搖後,政府怎解救。

但從另一面方向看,市場一旦受此次賣地影響而對後市感虛怯,或許自動為樓市降溫,讓一二手樓價暫停繼續攀升,更正中政府的下懷,連特首話用5個月時間(禤中怡不明白為何要這麼長時間),諮詢是否復建居屋這個建議也可省回。

此外,政府自行推出何文田和山頂聶歌山道兩幅地皮外,港鐵(066)又推南昌站上蓋項目招標,幅幅都是市區靚地,發展商自然垂涎,想保留彈藥,集中資源競投這些靚地,採取擇肥而噬。不過,既然土地供應不足,發展商還可以專揀靚麵粉,唯有嘆句,發展商始終是贏家。

(5月12日刊於《am730》)

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