Tuesday, May 11, 2010

希臘下一關—519

禤中怡喜歡觀賞足球賽事,更喜見英格蘭、西班牙和意大利這幾個受歡迎的聯賽,竟鬥至最後一場,鬥得你死我活,先見車路士狂勝稱王,認真厲害,而國米與羅馬;巴塞和皇馬之爭仍未分出勝負。

歐洲的金融環境同樣未分勝負,希臘等歐豬五國先被評級機構唱淡,歐元區國家和國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)終齊齊泵水,提供最多7,500億歐元(約7.6萬億港元)資金,除了救希臘,更要救歐元,但相信造淡歐元的投資者或已平倉獲利離場,再等機會,特別是本月19日,希臘要還國債,好淡角力之爭,屆時可能又再上演。

此外,美股暴挫千點的離奇事件亦讓股市帶來骨牌效應,恐怕套息盤拆倉未停,否則日圓於上周四怎會從94日圓兌1美元,突挾上至89水平,而其他商品期貨所帶來的影響,恐怕難以估計,只能肯定的是,從股市投資中損失的索償訴訟將大增,律師行生意將受惠,可惜其他投資外匯和衍生工具等而「間接」損手的投資者,又怎找人索償呢?

歐盟同IMF救市,雖然未知結果如何,最低限度已將希臘等重擔孭上身,營造利好因素,亞洲股市立即彈上,香港和新加坡股市更漲逾2%,而恒指昨日開市推上198點至20,118點,淡友仍有走貨機會,兼在20,200點再推落至20,035點,走一轉已補回。

直至午後,歐洲股市跟隨向上,港股承接這股力量,恒指才發力,差點破20,500點,收市仍彈506點至20,426點。市況波動,投資者轉投窩輪市場,連續第三日成交額破100億元,至逾103.8億元,佔大市比重更比上周五多3.44個百分點至14.64%。

金融股自然成為大市向上的主要動力,一隻滙豐控股(005)便推高恒指161點之多,佔升幅比重達31.8%,該股全日升5.6%,至77.7元收市,成交股數6,910萬股,而大手成交更逾2,000宗,認真熱鬧,所涉股份達5,460萬股,佔全日成交股份的79%之多。其實,滙控股價自今年1月中附近見92.8元後,已輾轉回落,即使昨日顯著反彈,仍然較年初高位跌了16.2%,反映股價跌得殘,幸好未致於失去支持。

不過,面對大升市,「空軍」大舉收縮,沽空額從上周五的76.89億元,大幅減少38.7%至昨日的47億元,若果單看大笨象的沽空額,更從上周五的19.1億元,足足大跌56.7%,至8.267億元,跌幅較整體沽空額的減幅更為厲害。除了救市外,大笨象上周話,今年首季業績佳,因貸款減值下降,而自07年以來,美國業務首次錄得稅前利潤,並預期新興市場的信貸需求上升,令日後收入增加,續成推動力,多少提供利好因素。另一隻在新興市場擁有龐大業務的渣打集團(2888)昨日亦跟炒,全日升4.2%至195.8元,距離今年高位219.2元,仍然相差10.6%。

另外,望望資料,原來道瓊斯歐洲50指數中,其中28間企業的盈利分布,41%至80%來自歐洲境外的地區,反映歐洲市場欠佳,不一定代表歐股業績受嚴重影響,而其中一隻成分股,正正就是大笨象也。

(5月11日刊於《am730》)

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