Tuesday, May 18, 2010

拆息上升股樓有難?

上周才話,歐盟加國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)出巨資救歐元,但淡友會趁希臘於明日償還國債前夕等機會,怎知市況已急轉直下,可能歐洲資金也要班師回朝,股市難免受壓,加上淡友持續出擊,形成骨牌效應。資金是否流走確需注意,因為港元短息出現上升情況,如隔夜息升0.22厘,至0.26厘,1個月拆息升0.36厘,至0.48厘,而3個月拆息則微升0.03厘,至0.17厘。儘管息率水平並非顯著,但增幅驚人,反映短錢有需求,供應卻減少,兼且拆息上升會否成為趨勢,亦對大市構成影響,而用拆息作為按揭息率的業主也要留意,因為供樓開支或會增加。

至於港股昨開市即跌穿20,000點,裂口低開313點,至19,832點,最多跌552點至19,593點,最終略抽回至19,715點,挫430點。即月期指亦跌293點至19,634點,較現貨高水41點,指導性不大,成交合約則逾9萬張,可能繼續屬即日鮮居多,而上周五未平倉合約才7.2萬張,雖然未算顯著,但需留意今日公布最新的未平倉合約會否續增。

牛熊證市場的殺戮氣氛不遑多讓,昨日再度有多達47隻牛證打靶,39隻為恒指牛證,當中包括回收價為19,600點的恒指牛證,可惜大市回升也於事無補。13隻回收價為恒指於19,500點的恒指牛證幸免於難,且看能否力頂到底。

另一個跌市疑兇,非內地股市莫屬,上證綜指暴瀉5%,收市報2,559點,見09年5月以來新低水平,而市場認為,股指期貨推出令淡友有機可乘,但《人民日報》趁以滬深300指數為主的股指期貨「滿月」,特別第三度發表文章,幫手解畫,畢竟開戶人數逾2萬戶,保證金總額為70億元人民幣,偏偏滬深300指數在有關期貨面世期間,最多曾挫17.78%,但該報話,實際造成跌市的,主要是外圍如歐洲債務危機和內地收緊貨幣及房地產政策有關,兼且股指期貨規模細,難發揮如此巨大威力。股市下跌,多少要為自己尋找一服安慰劑,但內地壞消息一直未停,好消息又未見,恐怕仍要尋底。

除了股市,立法會補選投票率較預期低也屬壞消息,與特區政府一直以花費1.5億元公帑,作為定性立法會補選的做法不對,多少有影響。不過,按337萬名選民計,每名才花44.5元,如能為自己的未來表態,相信不算大花筒,只要審計署稍為落力一點,不難從政府的浪費中,省回比這筆更大的金額回來。

其實,做上市公司的股東何嘗不是面對相若慘況,努力投票也不及大戶力量,幸好凡事總有例外,有時股東的投票亦非白費,且看從事製造毛絨玩具等的崇高國際(209)上周開股東特別大會,其中《授予董事有權發行不超過20%股份》的決議案中,持有約51.61%股權的大股東放棄投票,投贊成票的只有12.4萬股,投反對票亦不過是216.8萬股,但竟已佔總投票股份的94.59%,壓倒性否決這個決議,代表董事要發行不超過20%股份時,就要開股東會批准方可。與已發行股本逾11.93億股計,反對股份其實僅佔0.18%而已,確有「大衛擊倒巨人哥利亞」的味道。該股昨跌1.2%至0.82元收市。

(5月18日刊於《am730》)

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