Wednesday, April 02, 2008

謝國忠發警告

時間過得很快,去年今日是小女兒的出生日,而4月3日就是家母的歸天日,在過去一年,禤中怡努力地學做第二任爸爸,也過著沒有媽媽在旁的日子,小生命的成長,令我快樂得可以,但同時間,我也十分懷念母親,而且這股懷念是歷久常新的,在此亦感謝讀者在整整一年下來,仍支持這個小方塊,我自知寫得不夠好,但定當繼續努力,以報答大家的厚愛,多謝。(註:並在一年後的今天,再次多謝廣華醫院深切治療部的醫護人員,您們對家母的照顧,我永遠也會銘記於心。)

感謝過後,不如聽聽著名經濟學家謝國忠上周日在一個投資研討會上的見解。話雖謝國忠已離開大摩多時,變回自由身,不過,說話更有見地,分析依然有價。佢話中國經濟不會像98年那樣出現衰退,但認為中國經濟會有很大的放慢。最驚人的是,他說中國的房地產問題很大,房地產開發商沒錢了,房價在下跌的時候,沒人貸款給地產商。房地產開發商要大量破產,更認為這也不是件壞事,因為中國的開發商數目太多了。

話雖內地宏觀調控對樓市構成影響,內地報章話有發展商減價賣樓等。禤中怡卻發覺多間發展商去年盈利增長幾十個巴仙屬平常,大升逾倍更是不少,似乎賣樓毛利依然高,找做內地房地產的朋友問問,究竟如何熬過這段低潮時,朋友竟話無問題!因內地市道仍熱,至於如何應付宏調政策,答案是:賣些價格較便宜、檔次較低的項目,便形成價格向下情況,兼可交差,是真是耶,大家自行判斷。

但謝國忠似乎聞到燶味,看看內地證監會早前禁止房地產開發商在內地上市集資增購地皮,只准用作現有項目發展所需,便可見問題嚴重性。即使僥幸轉來香港上市亦不一定成事,且看1月招股的昌盛中國地產臨門夭折,然後堪稱出手闊綽的恒大地產也無法抵禦這股寒流。

即使有兩隻內房股甩腳,但愈來愈多內地房地產股來港上市拿錢確是事實。06年有5間內房股上市,以為已經很多,估不到去年更鼎盛,計一計也有9間之多,今年排隊來抽水的內房股更料達15間,可見他們明白這個遊戲已不再像以往般,賣樓套現再發展,而是要有足夠彈藥應付項目發展周期的資金需求,否則會無以為繼。聽聞單在這個季度就已有重慶龍湖地產、深圳卓越地產和宏宇集團擬招股,而曾在港大賣廣告的方圓地產也蠢蠢欲動,但內地證監會開綠燈與否,市場又能否承受得起,的確是一大考驗。

不過,若公司揀本季招股,相信仍要印招股書,因為證監會和港交所(388)昨聯合發出諮詢文件,建議公司招股時,只需在指定網站刊發電子版本招股章程,毋須印招股書,又減成本又夠環保,實在值得表態支持。

(4月2日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

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