Wednesday, September 22, 2010

集資快槍王

禤中怡望著周一美股彈升,忘記就寢,凌晨4時才爬上床。美國全國經濟研究局(NBER)話,美國經濟衰退已經於09年6月劃上句號,結束世界第二次大戰以來,經歷最長的18個月衰退期,成為推高股市的好消息。

有趣的是,由哈佛、史丹福和麻省理工等著名大學經濟教授所組成的NBER話,制訂商業循環景氣中,未有特別界定一個特別的類別,就是不少經濟和財金專家所講的雙底衰退(double-dip recession),主要視兩段時間的衰退是分開出現,還是兩者同屬衰退期內,好像告訴大家,日後經濟再轉差,甚至再現衰退,與金融海嘯無關。

在美國聯儲局議息結束前夕,該組織突然公布這樣一個好消息,難免惹來春江鴨搶貨,令道指周一漲145點至10,53點,升1.37%,而標普500指數更漲1.52%,但為何選擇在這個敏感時間發聲呢?究竟是否正上演經濟新劇目,由NBER做先鋒,公布好消息,待主角聯儲局登場,話無量化寬鬆新措施,從而淡化市場憧憬有新救市措施的期望?

若聯儲局暫不再推出量化寬鬆措施,需注意美元匯價弱勢又會否扭轉過來,畢竟花旗國出口術,加上人民幣兌一美元匯價在中國人民銀行於6月中增強匯率彈性後,升值逾1%,連澳元、日圓等亞洲貨幣也造好,而這種挾高亞幣的趨勢若突逆轉,會否對資金流走帶來沉重壓力。

另外,市場另一焦點,是大家齊搶錢,十多間新股排隊要搶,其他上市公司亦加入集資,像第一太平(142)發行高達4億美元(約31.2億港元)的10年期有抵押債券,用所持菲律賓PLDT股份作抵押,年息6.375厘。

另外兩間上市公司更選擇發行低息CB(convertible bonds),即可換股債券,亨得利(3389)搵渣打和摩根大通幫手發行25億元的CB,年息僅2.5厘,年期為5年,集資用作擴充業務。不過,該集團於上月底才以每股3.48元配售3億股新股,集資高達10.44億元,在短短不足1個月內再度抽水,堪稱集資快槍王。

該批CB換股價為4.925元,較發行前收市價4.01元有高達約23.5%溢價,但未知市場是否憂慮股份攤薄效應,股價昨日逆市下挫5.9%,至3.77元收市,即CB溢價更拉闊至30.6%。

值得注意的是,該集團有批07年發行的CB換股價為3.73元,即已高於收市價1%,若換取新股後,股份數目肯定再增大,試問集團要賺多幾多錢,才能避免每股盈利向下呢?

至於銀泰百貨(1833)批19.41億元CB的陣容更強大,因為有美銀美林、瑞銀和摩根士丹利做經辦人,但只能睇3年時間,年息更只有1.75厘,條款未算特別吸引,換股價為13.31元,較發行前收市價10.4元的溢價更達27.98%,加上股價昨日跌3.6%至10.02元,意味批CB換股價溢價更增至32.8%之高,要兌換為股份的難度自然擴大。

(於9月22日刊於《am730》)

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