Tuesday, September 07, 2010

奧巴馬的政策市

由於市場憧憬花旗國總統奧巴馬準備推出刺激經濟新方案,即使8月明明是職位數目減少5.4萬份了,也可解讀為較預期優勝,因為市場預期減少10萬份,而該數據預測怎樣「製作」而成已不用深究,只要將數字作比較,自然讓壞消息變成利好因素便可,確是高明。

市傳奧巴馬更會連環出招,第一招就是提供1,000億美元(約7,800億港元)企業免稅優惠,提高及延長企業投放研發(R&D)方面的開支可免稅,藉此刺激國內開發新技術,並保留美國就業職位,一舉兩得。

第二式原來又是向基建著手,計劃豪拋500億美元(約3,900億港元),修橋築路,兼且準備成立一間「基建銀行」,實行邀請私人企業等金融資本齊齊玩。其中包括建造和保養4,000里鐵路,而這個政策無疑又顯出美國股神巴菲特的投資智慧,因他於去年底才斥340億美元(約2,652億港元)收購全美第二大鐵路公司BNSF,相信會因鐵路網絡擴大而受惠。

且看廣深鐵路(525)、中國中鐵(390)及中國南車(1766)股價會否像上次美國股神買BNSF般,再次上演刺激造好的一幕。

不過,花旗國政府面對收入減少,開支又不能不控制情況下,特別是今年度美國財政赤字預期創新高的1.47萬億美元(約11.4萬億港元),明年度更要降至1.42萬億美元(約11萬億港元),要找錢幫補,當然要在股市裡尋,故減持通用汽車(GM)股份,以及其他金融股套現實屬好計,如於7月沽了一批花旗集團(CITI GROUP)股份後,仍持有51億股花旗股份,以上周五收市報3.91美元計,亦值近200億美元(約1,560億港元),連同GM股份又逾百億美元計,有大量資金可供再揮霍,所以股市不能太差。

其實,說穿了,美國常說中國控制這、控制那,現在何嘗不是利用政策市,振興經濟,完全為了應付中期選舉,討好選民以獲得選票,而這種政策市究竟對經濟有何實質影響,相信政客已經不會細想了。

至於亞洲區股市昨日除了大馬市場外,可說全線造好,日股更反彈2%,更勝恒指的1.87%升幅,而深滬股市更上揚逾1.5%。儘管股市牛皮多時,若美股要開車,按理港股應受惠,大家就要留意了。

題外話,禤中怡上周談到救美國負資產,有網友立刻加以補充:「住宅負資產佔整體比重高達23%,與香港當年很接近了。不過,單看這個數字是不足夠的,還要看負資產的深度。基於美國樓價跌幅只有兩三成,相對於香港當年樓價曾跌近七成,負資產的深度實在有限,大家不必過份憂慮,美國政府相信是有能力解決負資產困難的,問題只是時間而已。」時間確是療傷辦法之一,但也是投資敵人,若資金短期內周轉不靈,業主又無法賣屋套現,將會陷萬劫不復之地了。

(於9月7日刊於《am730》)

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