Tuesday, August 31, 2010

救救花旗國負資產

美國聯儲局主席伯南克又出口術,話不排除再救市,為股市造「人工呼吸」,奈何無實際落藥,故只略支撐美股。港股昨日開市亦挾高200點,直至見20,832點便已無力向上,加上同為期指結算日,大戶轉向推低中國人壽(2628)和中國移動(941)股價,令恒指升幅之後反覆收窄,全日只升139點,收報20,737點,主板成交僅492億元,扣除窩輪加牛熊證成交後,更只有363億元,乾升罷了,負面氣氛仍籠罩。

經濟未見起色,市場早已認為各地政府仍需出手,像日本央行昨終擴大貸款規模,日經平均指數即彈1.7%,至9,149點,之後政府又籌備推出9,200億日圓(約845億港元)的刺激經濟新措施,但對舒緩日圓匯價高企幫助不大,恐怕出口再受打擊,本地實質經濟肯定難有起色,難怪日本商界終放下本土主義,走向國際,像網上旅遊和零售網站集團Rakuten(樂天)創辦人兼總裁三木谷浩史提出2012年起,員工需以英文溝通,文件語言格式亦需跟隨。至於Uniqlo品牌的Fast Retailing亦於後年起,統一在內部會議和電郵中用英文,對當地員工來說,可提升技能應付競爭,但當地教育能否配合呢?

美國方面,伯南克也要計算好時間讓市場有驚喜,令股市造好,因通用汽車(GM)籌備在今年成為當地最大集資計劃,或搶160億美元(約1,248億港元),故連內地人仔也不放過,傳上汽入股GM。

不過,美國樓市仍處深切治療階段,要改善經濟就要加強救樓市。即使美國房貸機構Freddic Mac(房地美)統計,30年按揭固定息率由4.42厘降至4.36厘,為1971年有統計以來新低水平,並且在過去10周中,足足有9周錄得按揭息率下跌情況,反映借錢買樓成本低,現有業主也可透過轉按而受惠,但樓市成交仍然低迷。

經歷過本港樓市低潮的業主,相信比禤中怡更清楚,首先出現的當然是「負資產」這個恐怖詞語,由於當地管制銀行力度加大,業主尚餘按揭額分分鐘比現時樓價為高,要成功轉用更低息的按揭,自然要找方法填補轉按金額不足部分,試問業主如何搵錢贖身呢?

CoreLogic統計顯示,原來第二季當地有多達1,100萬間住宅仍處負資產情況,佔整體比重23%,比首季的1,120萬間降1.7%,看似數字減少屬喜訊,但細心一看,並非受惠樓價向上而擺脫困境,原來是負資產已淪為銀主盤,再望望foreclosure.com,接近成為銀主盤(即業主可能欠交供款,銀行提出需還款,或賣屋還債),以致遭銀行沒收作拍賣的物業高達226.7萬間。所謂好戲在後頭,原來統計還發現,有多達240萬間住宅的業主所投入的真金白銀佔樓價僅5%而已,意味這批業主極有可能加入負資產行列。其實,美國政府不讓樓市惡化已是功德無量,特別是想方法讓政府所印銀紙能交到業主手上,否則經濟「康復出院」仍有一段距離。

(於8月31日刊於《am730》)

7 Comments:

At 9:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

住宅負資產佔整體比重高達23%, 與香港當年很接近了. 不過, 單看這個數字是不足夠的, 還要看負資產的深度. 基於美國樓價跌幅只有兩三成, 相對於香港當年樓價曾跌近七成, 負資產的深度實在有限, 大家不必過份憂慮, 美國政府相信是有能力解決負資產困難的, 問題只是時間而已.

 
At 12:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

香港有天水圍. 美國都有. 一流學區, 治安好o既市中心區, 過去一年都起碼升左 15%. 呢個下跌數據, 係講緊好多個天水圍

 
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