Tuesday, August 24, 2010

菲律賓恐怖風險

見到香港人開開心心去旅行,卻竟碰上脅持意外,場面認真恐怖,禤中怡望著電視,見到在菲律賓旅遊巴士上的部分港客最終能夠落車,總算舒了一口氣,可惜最終仍有人命傷亡,的確令人哀傷,希望家屬能夠節哀順變。

其實,香港上市公司投資菲律賓的不算多,最出名的自然是老牌綜合企業第一太平(142),當中包括電訊公司PLDT、還投資供水、收費道路、供電、健康護理及港口發展等。另一類自然是近期熱門的礦產業務,像寰亞礦業(8173)間接於當地參與勘探磁鐵礦砂及其他礦藏。至於由賣咖啡轉為發展礦業的其士泛亞(508),亦計劃投資最多逾18億元於菲律賓開發鈦磁鐵沙礦項目。

巧合的是,該3隻股份股價昨日竟然齊齊逆市向上,第一太平股價全日增0.8%,至5.88元,寰亞礦業亦升約1.3%,至7.8仙,而升幅最厲害的,是其士泛亞,股價單日更急漲7.4%,至0.72元收市。但所謂力不到不為財,上市公司高層親身走去當地視察業務,實屬理所當然,但現時當地的治安環境認真嚇怕人,除非遙遠控制業務,否則幫管理層買份旅遊保險少不免,但政府發出黑色旅遊警告,加上脅持事件以流血結束,短期內怎樣視察業務呢?市場今日會怎樣看待這些股份的投資風險呢?

相反,港股缺乏驚喜,恒指開市一小時推落逾130點,迫近20,850點,之後窄幅上落,收市只跌92點,報20,889點,主板成交額僅463億元,扣除新上市的西部水泥(2233)首日成交額12.6億元,主板交投只有450億元,淡靜情況可想而已。

至於上市公司紛紛派中期成績表,多數亦不叫人驚訝,有單位數字增長幅度的比比皆是,有雙位數字增幅的亦有不少,畢竟09年上半年的經營慘況,大家仍歷歷在目,基數必然較低,故業績回升實屬正常,未真正考驗管理層的功力。當然,有些早已叫人驚嚇的,如發盈利警告的玖源集團(827)、意科控股(943)和福方集團(885)份中期成績表一如預期般見紅。但並沒有發盈利警告的華南投資(159)半年虧損卻竟然大幅擴大,從去年同期蝕1,890萬元,急增至今年上半年度的1.57億元,原來為採礦權減值1.53億元,該集團管理層解釋,因應長期銅價預測作調整,故採取更審慎保守方法做減值,那麼管理層當初是不夠保守,還是買貴了呢?

即使業績無見紅,但像大成食品(3999)中期純利卻退步56%,至306.1萬美元(約2,387萬港元),叫人失望。公司解釋玉米漲價令雞肉業務毛利受影響。但令人關注的是其逾期帳款總數較去年同期大增78%至780.4萬美元(約6,087萬港元),當中應收帳款逾61天至90天,以及超過90天的,更分別大增5.6倍和1.1倍,若採取審慎撇帳策略,該批逾期應收帳款豈非連僅餘的盈利也全部蠶蝕?難怪該股昨日以直插4.2%至1.58元全日最低位收市。

(於8月24日刊於《am730》)

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