Monday, July 26, 2010

驚嚇陸續來

恒指表演5連升,可惜早市曾迫近21,000點後,便掉頭回落,全日上落波幅只有137點而已,收市微升24點至20,839點,小心在期指臨近結算前夕受波動影響,畢竟上周五未平倉合約已增至7.48萬張。

上周講《要盈喜定要驚喜》,有網友就提出意見,認為盈喜和盈警根本只是給某些人成為舞弄股價的工具,建議取消。禤中怡認為,任何一種工具和資訊均可能會對股價帶來影響,只要公平發放,而非由少數人操控便可。

半新股卻繼續嚇人一驚,於09年12月18日才上市的勝利管道(1080),於上周五收市後發盈利警告,股價昨日開市即由2.04元往下插至1.7元,曾低見1.66元,暴挫18.6%,收市報1.7元,單日下瀉16.6%,成交股數7,752萬股,成交額逾1.3億元。其中大手成交涉2,410萬股,佔成交的31%。該股解釋,中期純利料挫50%,因內地大型建築項目受政府宏調影響而令訂單大減,以及利得稅優惠稅率由零增至12.5%所致。該原因更觸發同類股份如珠江鋼管(1938)下滑9%,至3.64元收市,做油管等相關產品的山東墨龍(568)股價亦不見了4.2%。

勝利管道的上市保薦人為麥格理。自今年2月以來,股價一直低於招股定價2.2元,招股書的風險因素早已披露自己依賴單一產品,而兩個石油集團客戶已佔營業額逾93%比重,兼講明有政策風險,更列出由今年起稅率亦提高至12.5%,只怪你不看清楚。

至於在去年12月17日搭上尾班車的摩比發展(947)早已在月中發盈利預警,話中期純利大跌,因銷售3G產品收入下跌、毛利率回落和銷售等費用增加所致。該股昨跌1.5%至1.9元,而自公布盈警以來,股價累瀉17%。該股聯席保薦人為Piper Jaffray和第一上海。兩股上市半年多便露出真面目,快過打針。

但即使發盈喜也不等於叫股東欣喜,像於去年10月底上市的卡姆丹克(712)雖然話中期純利將大增12倍,但望望09年同期只賺443萬元人民幣,基數甚低,難怪有雙位倍數增長,但也不過是逾5,000萬元人民幣而已,可知道08年中期純利1.28億元人民幣的嗎?就算有盈喜,實際還是未重回以往水平。

證監會昨日便炮轟在09年10月至今年3月所審閱的68宗上市申請中,部分上市保薦人就公司申請上市未有造好審慎評估工作,甚至可能提供嚴重失實的解釋。證監舉例在一宗個案中,上市申請人向屬於前僱員的分銷商賣貨,但招股章程初稿只提供有限資料。該會查詢後才發現上市申請人的營業額顯著增長,全靠賣貨予這些分銷商所致,而這些分銷商在打工時的薪酬不高,變成分銷商後卻被要求預先支付大筆購貨款項。證監會指保薦人並沒有審慎評估這些分銷商如何籌得資金作採購。所謂過海就是神仙,但投資者有權不被騙的。

題外話,聯交所資料顯示,近期較為沉靜的獨立股評人David Webb於本月20日入市增持新興光學(125)9.2萬股,每股平均價3.07元,涉28.24萬元,股權由7.99%,微增至8.03%,而該股昨收報3.06元,無升跌兼無成交,粉絲今日又會否捧場呢?

(7月27日刊《am730》)

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