Wednesday, June 23, 2010

農行新劇接力上演

內地發功,非同凡響,且看本港政改方案,內地主政者在編導演都表現出色,儘管方案內容乏善足陳,如選特首的人數由800人增至1,200人,繼續小圈子遊戲,但已被視為民主進一大步。該劇先安排不同演員出場,除特首落區外,像行政會議成員兼港交所(388)主席夏佳理話時間緊迫,修改空間有限,營造別無他法的感覺,之後中聯辦上台,演繹溝通技巧,並讓民主黨拋出新方案,齊齊(梁愛詩和建制派)轉軚支持,最後更令民主派分裂加深,若果今日過關,確帶來「齊歡暢、同慶賀」的結局,真的不能不寫個「服」字。

另一個叫人拍案叫絕的,就是在經濟方面同時上演新劇目,首先是人民幣匯率彈性增加的政策,無話只有單邊升,昨日人幣兌美元匯價即展示「會跌」的結果,不單打回原形,兼且「跌突」,但試問資金要炒升而湧入的效應,恐怕足以推動人幣匯率向上。

資金充足,便準備為該劇目的第二幕重頭戲拉開戲幕,就是由內地政府旗下的中國農業銀行在中港兩地公布上市招股大計。可知道集資額逾千億元,更需早作部署,不容有失,且看下周正式登場時的場面有多墟冚。

在公布上市前,當然要踢高影子股股價,而這種走勢多少令近期出現「H貴過A」的情況出現,就是恒生AH股溢價指數跌穿100水平,昨日雖回升至97.92,惟未超越100這條分水嶺,而低於100,代表計算中港掛牌的AH股上市公司成份股的總流通市值後,A股比H股出現折讓,亦可解作為H股價值較A股為高。

不過,望望個別股份,其實是中資金融股的H股股價被推高所致。以示公平,且看將H股股價轉換為人民幣計算,民營的民生銀行(1988)的H股股價比A股多16.2%,而國有銀行的情況就更突出,建設銀行(939)的H股股價比A股還高18.4%,而工商銀行(1398)的H股股價比A股更高達22.9%。連同中國人壽(2628)和中國太平洋保險(2601)也是H股比A股貴,上述重磅股足以推低恒生AH股溢價指數。其實很多AH股公司的H股股價仍低於其A股股價的,像3隻航空股、部分電力和公路股便是。

當然,有新劇上演,雖搶去觀眾焦點,但類似節目也會跟勢推出,希望分一杯羹。像內地國泰君安便安排旗下本港及海外業務國泰君安國際(1788)趕在農行登場前,於周五招股,實行從湧入的資金中吸逾20億元。至於從事保險及強積金經紀業務的康宏控股也準備於下周二招股,但需注意,兩者均並非從事內地金融業務。

還記得科網熱潮時,新鴻基地產(016)分拆新意網(8008)上市之際,從事流動電話業務的SUNDAY(已被電訊盈科(008)收購兼私有化)也同時招股,儘管業務性質、甚至大股東背景大不同,但未知是混亂,抑或有殺錯無放過,禤中怡認識的一位散戶朋友以為自己認購新意網,最終卻竟是買了SUNDAY股份,當時哭笑不得,唯一安慰的是,新意網昨日收報1.15元,較招股定價蒸發89%,散戶朋友則早已拿回SUNDAY私有化後的現金作其他投資了。

(6月23日刊於《am730》)

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