Wednesday, June 09, 2010

破百億無掌聲

在97年3月,信和置業(083)為首財團以高達118.2億元,投得港島小西灣地皮,即今日的藍灣半島也。回想當年,賣地氣氛熾熱,禤中怡還記得,當時叫價突破百億元時,整個拍賣會場響起一片掌聲,興奮莫名。不幸地,數月後便爆發亞洲金融風暴。相反,昨日以109億元售出的何文田前山谷道邨二期地皮,叫價突破100億元時,會場內相對平靜,或許比最樂觀估值的逾96億元還高,大家反而變得不知所措。

畢竟政府正壓抑樓市之際,發展商卻對靚地如此勇悍,反映要控制樓市著實不易,況且新鴻基地產(016)重手出擊,每方呎樓面價格高達逾1.25萬元,但若能推動旗下市區樓盤價值,又是有賺無蝕,況且於2007年6月以55.6億元投得的九龍海輝道地皮,每方呎樓面地價6,066元,即只及何文田地皮的52%而已,兼且靠近海邊,他日開售又可提高毛利率了。

新地股價尾市便推上,最高曾見104.3元,收市仍漲2%至103.8元,而早前李超人話長江實業(001)借貸少,銷售樓盤回籠多,肯定有能力投資巨額項目,原來準備彈藥買市區地,雖然最終落敗,但肯定成間接受惠者,因為同區半山壹號仍有餘貨待售,而該股昨日亦升1.7%,至87.7元接近全日最高位收市。

除地產股推動恒指向上外,中國移動(941)續造好,漲1.55%至75.25元,以及滙豐控股(005)反彈1%也有份,但科技股騰訊(700)反跌2.1%至143.7元收市,成交額更高達17.23億元,排成交額榜首,可見沽壓不少,莫非受內地最新發布的《中國互聯網狀況》白皮書指,09年公安機關辦理各類網絡犯罪案件4.8萬宗,並將依法打擊網絡犯罪,令市場憂慮網上用量減少,騰訊的高速增長神話破滅?

海外還有其他好消息,像美國聯儲局主席伯南克話,美國經濟持續復甦,應可避免進入雙底衰退的厄運,更話市面上,經濟已經好轉,目前民間消費和投資的動力還不錯,唯一問題是失業率還維持在高位一段時間,而目前美國失業率為9.7%。

彭博通訊剛於本月2至3日訪問了1,001名使用其專業服務的客戶,了解他們的投資意向,包括在未來一年,那兩個市場提供最佳的投資機會,39%竟然揀美國為首選,巴西以29%排第二,而中國跟隨以28%居季軍位置,可見已發展的美國還比金磚四國具備更優勝的地方,與伯南克看好當地經濟的言論不謀而合。

至於兩個投資機會最差的就是歐盟國家,高達51%,其次是同位於歐洲的英國市場,佔25%。

提供最高回報的投資工具方面,35%選股票,23%揀商品,而回報最不理想的則為債券(36%)。至於在未來6個月間的投資策略,42%選擇增持股票、維持現水平的亦有32%,而增持商品的也佔30%。

題外話,上周提及利豐(494)計劃收購美容保健企業已走入直路,有望於下周一正式公布。該股昨日收市報35.05元,升1.5%。

(6月9日刊於《am730》)

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