Wednesday, July 07, 2010

炎熱天有消暑股

恒指連跌4日後,終見反彈,全日向上241點,至20,084點收市,但總成交額才468億元,未見顯著回升,而大市向上仍然全靠中資金融股包括建設銀行(939)、工商銀行(1398)、中國人壽(2628)和中國銀行(3988),以及滙豐控股(005)撐場,5隻藍籌股合共推高恒指106點,佔升市近44%比重了,這種上落市局面,相信隨著農業銀行(1288)招股完畢,而有所突破。

對比昨日談到受政府注資的歐洲金融機構賣海外資產還債,亞洲區依然有朝氣,區內金融機構依然有好環境。Dealogic統計,區內不計日本市場,原來今年上半年,投資銀行收入共達31億美元(約241.8億港元),比去年同期大增1.8倍之多,而更厲害的是,這個半年數據經已打破07年同期所創的28億美元(約218.4億港元)紀錄,比舊紀錄還多10.7%。儘管市況並非理想,主因重災區歐洲出現的債務問題多多,才拖累大市,但亞洲區生意依舊。另外,在投行收入排名中,高盛奪得冠軍位置。

投資熱之外,近期天氣炎熱,相信消暑股也有機會藉此受惠,除飲品股和家電股外,如市民湧到商場和百貨店享受冷氣,市民消費機會當然增加,刺激百貨股和商場收租股的表現。另外,大家頻開冷氣,無疑會增加耗電量,提升電力股的收入,尤其是香港兩間電力公司的生意應該會增多。

需注意的是,內地採取貨幣緊縮政策,工業生產增長放緩,難免影響耗電量增長速度,內地傳媒就話,6月內地發電量增長逾15%,較5月增長19%的幅度有所回落,而與今年1至5月發電量較去年同期增長21%比較,反映幅度回落快,故需留意會否進一步放緩,抑或透過家用電力的增加,抵銷工業用電增長放緩的影響。

但昨日內地電力股卻不受發電量增幅放慢消息影響,跟隨大市向上,大唐發電(991)升3.5%、中國電力(2380)增1.2%、華電國際(1071)漲1%,而藍籌電力股華潤電力(836)也增0.1%。華能國電(1071)逆市跌0.22%。

另一方面,環球實際經濟環境似乎麻麻,且看麥肯錫於6月向全球不同地區的企業高級管理層調查,獲得1,832人回覆,對於所屬國家的經濟狀況與6個月前比較,51%認為略有改善,但比4月所作同類調查的58%倒退7個百分點,而被問及下半年經濟狀況預測,49%認為略有改善,但比4月時問上半年經濟狀況所獲58%比較,反映看淡者已有所增加。

在歐元區受訪者中,僅43%表示其國家處復甦期,但60%卻認為全球經濟正復甦,反映他們視歐元區為全球經濟困難的來源。此外,多達79%受訪者預計歐元價值會在未來3個月下跌;多數預計歐元兌美元跌幅在10%以內。

至於市場憂慮的雙底衰退問題,略逾25%受訪者預計其國家或全球會出現這情況。而歐元區受訪者中,有三分一預計其國家會出現二次探底衰退,可見其悲觀程度,與亞洲區截然不同。

題外話,昨日公布升中派位結果,朋友兒子成功以首個志願入讀心儀的學校,朋友終舒一口氣。

(7月7日刊於《am730》)

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