Wednesday, June 30, 2010

3大國有行幫手做證

萬眾矚目的四大國有銀行之一的中國農業銀行(1288)終於登場,相信大家又要問應否認購?望望其他3間國有銀行股表現,或者有些歷史數據供大家參考。

在05年10月底上市的建設銀行(939)H股招股定價2.35元,與昨日收市價6.6元比較,足足每股賺4.25元,即總回報1.8倍。

至於在06年6月初登場的中國銀行(3988)H股招股定價2.35元,與昨日收市價3.97元比較,仍有68.9%回報。

在06年10月底附近掛牌的工商銀行(1398)H股招股定價3.07元,與昨日收市價5.76元比較,亦已累增87.6%。

如果大家肯做中長線投資者,便無須理會短期股價波動情況,因為該3間國有銀行股的表現不算失禮,只要肯持有,仍然獲不俗回報。

同證券界朋友談起,佢話未來兩年,農行份成績表應該不俗,不過,要炒上始終視乎整體市況而定。若果炒短線的話,該股定價將影響上升空間,國際配售截止時間與公開發售截止時間同為7月6日,但後者於中午截止,大戶和機構性投資者卻可以遲至當日下午5點前,才決定是否下注,因此他們可以先留意公開發售表現作參考,如果反應並非預期般理想,仍然有機會抽飛,最終或令農行需降低招股定價,屆時才有水位獲利離場。

他更認為,即使調低招股價,由於上升空間始終有限,若大量申請孖展作短線部署,分分鐘所獲分配股份不多之餘,即日沽出不一定有厚利,因為扣除利息開支後,有輸錢風險存在,故建議不宜用孖展重槌博弈。

談到大戶,近期銀行似乎著力催谷吸納這些資金充裕的投資者,連民營內銀股也有其策略,在這些國有巨頭銀行底下覓食。中信銀行(998)便夥拍其股東西班牙對外銀行(BBVA),合作做私人銀行業務,反映他們見到富豪們的需要,實行搶灘登陸。由於幫富豪管錢,可以獲得不俗的非利息收入,兼且這類服務變動不大,可以成為一項較穩定的收入來源。

但談到財富管理業務,海外金融巨無霸才算領頭羊,而他們經歷金融海嘯衝擊後,早已重新部署在亞洲區加添人手,爭取這個大「餅」,像德意志銀行旗下私人財富管理部門在過去6個月便已在北亞地區增聘12名賓架招呼大客,而各不同支援部門合共增加30個高級管理人員。至於花旗的私人銀行業務亦已準備安排40名有經驗的賓架和專才轉移至香港和新加坡工作。

業務多元化的滙豐控股(005)更加不會忽視這個市場,新加坡報章便引述集團高層話,單在當地已準備招請財富管理經理至高級副總裁的職位數目便達200個之多。

私人銀行同你對賭亦有可能,像開個戶口入場費10萬英鎊(約110萬港元)的英國Cater Allen Private Bank,推出一項結構性產品,入場費1萬英鎊(約11萬港元),賭英國富時100指數於未來6年的表現,只要符合條件,回報最高可達兩倍。見到這種場面,「I kill you later」的影子在腦中又再浮起………

(6月30日刊於《am730》)

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