Tuesday, July 06, 2010

比聯賓架望嫁好人家

今日對父親來說是重大日子,因公布升中派位結果,朋友兒子能否如願入讀心儀學校終有定奪,禤中怡希望他得償所願,難得的是,朋友並非追求名校,反而按兒子能力,首選志願只是一間校風頗佳的普通中學而已。

對於有意買中國農業銀行(1288)股份的散戶投資者來說,今日中午也是截止認購期限,由於市況欠佳,中國銀行(3988)又突殺出抽水方案搶錢,AH股每10股供不超過1.1股,似乎想為農行招股營造反應一般的境況,但「消息」又話多大機構參與配售,奈何公開發售反應卻未見熱烈,「阿公」為何會讓大戶低位買股份賺甜頭,另一方面卻嚇怕散戶不敢進場呢?

為配合農行登陸,港交所(388)亦擬准農行窩輪能同步上市,為投資者提供多一條買賣渠道。其實,港交所也要為衍生工具市場加把勁,應付海外競爭對手的挑戰,原來南韓交易所資料披露,在不足5年時間內,不經不覺跟隨香港之後,成為全球第二大窩輪市場,單是5月,日均成交額13.7億美元(約106.8億港元),比去年同期大增1.5倍,而比本港日均成交額19億美元(約148.2億港元)的差距有所收窄,而直至6月25日,6,090隻窩輪在南韓上市,比3月多逾1,000隻。

或許投機本性無分你我,畢竟窩輪產品有高槓桿效應,像三星電子股價波幅僅1%,相關窩輪隨時有10%至20%的上落幅度,加上免交易稅,難怪直至去年底窩輪市值4.7萬億韓圜(約298億港元),而發行商數目隨著德意志和渣打集團(2888)加入戰團而愈趨熱鬧。

銀行界同樣熱鬧,繼皇蘇(RBS)出售印度零售和商業業務予滙豐控股(005)後,大和證券(Daiwa)終出手10億美元(約78億港元),收購比聯集團(KBC)旗下環球可換股債券及亞洲股票衍生工具業務。兩宗交易看似風馬牛不相及,其實看穿了,就是削肉還債,藉出售非核心地區業務,將套現所得償還政府所提供的債項。粗略計計,KBC獲比利時政府注資達70億歐元(約683億港元),奈何政府派員入董事會,公司管理層當然想盡快擺脫政府的監管,故選擇賣資產去也。

禤中怡立刻找比聯的投資賓架朋友問候,朋友對此處之泰然,佢話畢竟金融行業講求人才,相信新主會保留全部員工,讓大家從歐資變日資,況且大和本身並沒有可換股債券業務這個部門,故收購不會與其現有業務出現重疊情況,被「洗倉」機會不大。

此外,為了減低員工流失的影響,聽聞今年份花紅應該獲保證,並以去年的水平作為指標,反映收入不會太差。不過,大和的對手野村(Nomura)於08年金融海嘯爆發之際,吞下雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)部分業務後,保證派花紅等留人,可惜蜜月期過後,雷曼的員工拿著厚幣離開,故賓架朋友估計大和不會步其後塵,會改為用較長年期方式分派花紅,令員工們繼續為其賣力。

除了日資外,現時另一具收購實力的,非中資莫屬,早前海通已購大福證券(665)做熱身,而國泰君安(1788)上市集資,可望彈藥上膛後,亦有能力展開收購戰。

(7月6日刊於《am730》)

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