Wednesday, August 25, 2010

菲國基金惹贖回?

一場可以避免的災難,呈現在全港電視觀眾的面前。禤中怡凌晨偶看美股,但周一晚卻專注留意菲律賓的港人遇難消息,聽到醫生的訪問,心裡一涼,擔心再有遊客命喪異鄉,希望傷者能夠康復過來。

事件甚至震撼整個亞洲區,昨日早上,大市剛開,遠在新加坡的傳媒朋友已經IDD來電查問究竟,又不知怎查問最新情況,可惜一時間也愛莫能助,不懂怎樣解答這個疑難,但可以反映其他地區對事件的關注程度。

其實,由整個營救行動,以至菲律賓總統的「演技」均認真嚇人,尤其是獨行槍手訴求非高,為何當地警方會有這種處理手法呢?還有總統批評媒體渲染,但若果電視畫面能夠有此效果,那麼總統何不利用媒體幫助解決事件,如親自上鏡,公布讓槍手復職等,早日解決危機。見到這種場面,禤中怡反而為菲律賓的前景憂慮,在這種人的統治下,人民福祉何處尋?

事件已令港人震怒,甚至有人提出杯葛去菲律賓旅行,那麼投資該國的資金又會否受影響呢?望望基金評級機構Morningstar,對比投資泰國、印尼,甚至越南,原來本港發售專注投資菲國的基金並不多,只有JF和保誠有該類基金的出品。

JF菲律賓基金總資產規模約7,000萬美元(約5.4億港元),主要投資當地金融、公用事業和工業三大類別為主,而過去1年表現看,回報達53.8%,跑贏指標,表現也不算差。

至於保誠基金IOF- 菲律賓股票基金A Acc總資產規模更只有2,622萬美元(約2億港元)而已,即使今年以來的回報也有29.27%,而一年計的回報更有53.6%,但似乎未有太多捧場客。

對比JF另一隻越南機會基金的總資產值達1.35億美元(約10.5億港元),甚至是保誠基金IOF-印尼股票基金A Inc的總資產規模更高達2.1億美元(約16.3億港元),反映投資者對參與投資新興市場的看法,早已有明顯焦點,比較之下,令該兩隻菲律賓基金的「尺碼」顯得更為蚊型。

難怪連基金界朋友也話,其實本港市面上有售的菲律賓單一市場基金不多,主因當地市場規模太細,而且當地政治局勢甚為波動,故此根本引不起投資者的興趣。

那麼今次事件又會否激起本港投資者實行沽貨,贖回該國基金離場,採取另類杯葛行動呢?基金朋友便話,雖然本港旅行團在馬尼拉遭冷血槍手槍殺,而當地特警又「無能」救回人質,引起港人憤怒,但估計暫不會有贖回菲律賓基金潮。

不過,事件發生時間尚短,面對群情洶湧的情況,投資情緒亦可能受到影響,相信要觀察一段時間才見真章。至於朋友會否因此而轉換菲傭,改聘泰傭或印尼傭人,負責照顧日常生活,就要看主僕的感情了。

(於8月25日刊於《am730》)

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