Wednesday, September 15, 2010

明年雞犬皆升

上周六,即911襲擊9周年,走去五星級酒店聽投資講座,一張票叫價一張金牛,依然高朋滿座,粗略估計,無一千也有八百人,即一場騷錢逾80萬元也絕不稀奇,而能夠有這個號召力的,當然是王冠一(王sir)的投資講座,今年主題叫︽2011年金融市場之^風起雲
湧﹀︾,選擇該日已夠紀念價值,連名稱也教觀眾期待。

最叫人驚喜的,並不是有甚麼號碼提供,竟是王sir上台致謝時,話好似開演唱會般,更話自己的歌聲動聽,即席唱起來,先來一首張國榮名曲︽儂本多情︾,然後Bee Gees上身,台下更有人點唱帝女花,但他更愛唱︽月亮代表我的心︾,讓台下的粉絲興奮不已,原來鏡頭背後的他那麼有情趣!

講到正題,他的徒弟,即僑豐期貨董事總經理林賽盈話股市波動,但原來金價於過去數年出現一個有趣的情況,就是第二季買金,然後第四季沽金,往往有利可圖,畢竟每年最後一季多嫁娶,需求自然增,而02年至08年間,嚴守第二季買,第四季沽的話,每年回報
分分鐘逾兩成,即使是08年金融海嘯,當年回報也高達37%!若每年肯勤力炒波幅,獲利十分和味。

至於今年第四季金價又如何呢?佢話看金價在1,150至1,275美元之間,因為始終要有強勁通脹情況出現,金價才能有顯著的升幅。

時富證券中國資本投資部董事羅尚沛未講投資前,卻先教大家避免損失,像那些受負面消息拖累的股份如霸王(1338)般,以為急挫後
追入博反彈,隨時有損傷,而有些突然撤換核數師的上市公司股份就更是可免則免了。要炒消息,事前要看清公司銷售的產品背景和入市時間,他打趣話:﹁要客戶重新買霸王,都要等佢用完支花王先得㗎!﹂,至於支洗頭水用多久,他暗示等一、兩個月吧!

壓軸出場的王sir話直至明年9月的12個月間,將會雞犬皆升,恒指料處18,800至23,200點,甚至攀上25,200點,而美股道指更看介乎9,432點至最樂觀的12,000點,畢竟財富效應促進消費,總統奧巴馬也會想到這點。

不過,他提醒,估計在美國舉行中期選舉前夕,股市有可能掉頭向下,甚至會試低位,叫大家要小心注意,或許等下跌後才吸納,並建議在20,200點買一注,然後每逢跌一千點便落一注的投資策略。股份方面,佢話資源龍頭股如鋁、鋼鐵類、煤炭股,以及環保概念股等。個別股份則包括馬鋼(323)和鞍鋼(347)等。

貴金屬走勢則可能先升後回,金價或從1,265美元上望1,330美元附近,才再回落,而農產品更是易升難跌,特別看好玉米、大豆和小麥等。

王sir話,美國作為大豆、小麥等最大出口國,在糧食短缺中受惠,加上美元有機會轉強勢,以壓抑通脹,故不容小覷其經濟實力。

(於9月15日刊於《am730》)

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