Wednesday, September 08, 2010

投資亞洲熱辣辣

滙豐控股(005)大班葛霖(Stephen Green)決定効法渣打(2888)前主席戴維思(Mervyn Davies),做英國貿易及投資大臣,禤中怡先祝這位牧師工作順利。他離任傳聞在坊間流傳多時,讓市場有足夠時間消化,相信大笨象股價不會因此大幅波動。該股在港收報79.25元,跌0.06%,尚未反映該消息落實因素。

英國政府找合適人選擔當該職位其實有難度,望望《金融時報》,原來曾幫工黨擔任該職位的戴維思婉拒外,當地著名企業勞斯萊斯集團(Rolls-Royce plc)行政總裁Sir John Rose也不願做官,難怪新政府成立多時,也無人接任,今趟更願意等葛霖明年初才履新,似乎人才難求。葛霖在亞洲和新興市場縱橫多年,經驗豐富,無疑可協助該國望向遠方謀發展。

其實,亞洲和新興市場已成為投資重鎮之一,除金融大鱷索羅斯(Soros)已進軍香港外,英國基金管理公司City Financial周一都要推出一隻亞洲絕對增長基金(Asia Absolute Growth fund),針對機構性投資者參與對沖基金,每年目標回報更看15%,認真樂觀。美銀美林更估計,今年環球流入對沖基金的資金中,20%將投放在亞洲市場。

看近一點,法國巴黎投資近來大賣廣告,主題也是標榜自己在新興國家的團隊實力,而《信報》健筆曹仁超下周做講座嘉賓時,也要談中國及新興市場投資機會,可見一斑。

為何歐美資金如此看重這個投資地區呢?且看有新興市場之父稱號的麥樸思(Mark Mobius)在網誌中表示,經歷97亞洲金融風暴和2000年代的南美金融危機後,這些國家紛削減海外和短期債務,而南美國家的儲蓄率從2001年的17%升至08年底的22%,反映已強化本身財政實力。

他更舉新興市場的信貸違約掉期(CDS)息率較美國國庫券的差價大幅收窄為例,從08年10月的865個基點(屬6年高位)大降至今年7月的287個基點,減幅達66.8%。亞洲及新興市場財政及經營環境較歐美健康,試問資金怎不投懷送抱。

題外話,股壇長毛David Webb近來相當沉靜,最近終出手買貨,於周一收市後披露於8月底增持40萬股隆成(1225)後,股權從5.08%增至6.05%,每股平均價1.143元。從事製造嬰兒車等用品的隆成股價於周一已彈一成,昨日收市續增至1.27元,即他增持的股份帳面回報11%,而現時所持股份市值達5,764萬元,小富翁也!

David Webb昨終發功,對國美電器(493)管理層將於月底開股東會與大股東黃光裕決戰,他先申報自己不認識相關人士及無持國美股票,免利益衝突,Webb建議股東支持主席陳曉,反對黃光裕建議的人選加入董事會。他話只要策略投資者貝恩資本於股東會前將可換股債券轉換為國美股份,便會支持重選貝恩3名代表入董事局。國美收報2.34元,無升跌,成交額卻達2.48億元。

(於9月8日刊於《am730》)

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