Tuesday, September 14, 2010

齊心就事成

原來齊心就事成,上周才講美國總統奧巴馬推出政策市,兼亞洲市場熱辣辣,再配合歐洲戰線亦傳捷報,監管機構對銀行的監管雷聲大、雨點小,連串消息讓資金昨大舉湧入亞洲股市。正當明日是雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)申請破產保護兩周年的大日子,當時翻起金融海嘯大風浪,以為經此一役,大家汲取教訓,加強監管,但今日歐洲的銀行仍可甩難,實在諷刺。

昨日台股漲2.5%,新加坡海峽時報指數升1.47%,而日股也增0.89%,幸好恒指也不失禮,開市略抽高逾百點,至21,396點,如果逆勢造淡便慘烈了,只見恒指早上續破多個關位,更高見21,714點,收市雖報21,658點,但仍升400點,增幅為1.89%。

無他,3大殘股貢獻良多,滙豐控股(005)股價由8月底的75.8元持續攀上79元附近,昨日更一口氣衝破80元,至80.6元收市,單日增1.8%。被Vodafone大幅減持的中國移動(941)股價連跌3日後,終抽上77.8元全日最高位收市,雖然配售股份還未見家鄉,成交股份持續3天平均每日逾5,000萬股,反映仍有人願意承接這隻公用股。但談到氣勢,當然不能不提中國人壽(2628),股價急增3.5%至30.85元,與8月初從35.2元邊跌邊走低,甚至跌穿30元已不可同日而語。有了這3隻重磅藍籌股撐場,足以推高恒指119點了。

不過,包含強制收回價在恒指於21,600和21,700點等共36隻恒指熊證遭打靶外,騰訊(700)、中國移動(941)和港交所(388)也各有一隻熊證遭收回。唯一讓造淡投資者慶幸的是有隻恒指德銀熊證收回價設於21,750點,成功避開「獵殺」,且看運氣於今早能否持續。

大家憧憬各地央行難加息,代表大量資金繼續充斥市場,即使內地通脹超出3%的「控制」上限,依然無懼,又可解作資產價格有機會升值嘛!再配合奧巴馬的政策市,營造利好氣氛外,歐洲新版巴塞爾協議,將銀行未來核心一級資本比率,由現時的2%增至4.5%,還要3年後,即2013年才開始逐步實施,為金融股減除短期資金壓力,怎不叫人興奮。當然,歐洲的銀行「體質」是否真的健康,相信只是暫時擱在一旁,讓淡友日後作為藉口推低股市而已。

美國跟隨發功的下一步就是企業併購,發揮所謂的協同效應,今次主角續是HP,以溢價達24%的代價,收購保安軟件商ArcSight,涉15億美元(約117億港元)現金,成為月初擊退Dell,斥23.5億美元(約183.3億港元)奪得3Par Inc.後的第二宗收購,而上月英特爾(Intel)便動用76.8億美元(約600億港元)買保安軟件公司Mcafee Inc.,認真熱鬧。

禤中怡問科技界朋友,佢話原來過去兩年,企業收縮科技方面的開支,但面對競爭,加上市況好轉,投資科技成為提升競爭力的手段之一,特別是金融機構,難怪他話今年確是好景,那麼本地科技股又會否受刺激呢?

(於9月14日刊於《am730》)

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