Monday, December 10, 2007

內地陣陣涼

禤中怡抽空往深圳福田走一趟,並選擇從落馬洲線過關,一路暢順,兩邊海關通道很闊大,相信已預留足夠空間應付長遠所需。直至乘深圳地鐵為止,大樓內也沒有閒雜人等,或許保安不准其他人隨便出入吧!


從地鐵的購物公園站穿往商場「Co Co Park」(內地開設商場,偏卻沒有中文名字),基本上未離開過室內,旅程簡單、快捷、便宜(深圳地鐵收2元人民幣)。禤中怡當然往外面看看,只見一幢幢寫字樓外形奪目,馬路是8條行車線,硬件絕不輸蝕,至於內裡乾坤就有待觀察。


深圳近年發展快,但近月已遇冷風,樓價下跌,地產代理也遭殃。同地產界朋友談起,佢話聽聞深圳有一間內地房地產代理規模大縮水,基本上只保留兩個銷售點,宏調效應已在市場反映出來。早前官方傳媒話,深圳另一間房地產代理商中天置業總裁蔣飛突然人間蒸發,這間在深圳、成都、上海擁有150多家門市的代理行創辦人,更傳涉虧空1.7億元人民幣。


其實,中央政府要控制經濟增長過熱,較為可取的方法就是減慢借貸速度,而且在過去5個月,每月均提高存款準備金率,即金融機構需將預留部分存款,以備客戶提款需要,準備金率愈高,可供放貸的金額便減少,過去存款續增,銀行存款基數仍大,自然問題不大,但準備金率到達一定幅度時,就不能忽視了。由於臨近年尾,銀行配額目標已多完成,央行今次大加存款準備金率1個百分點,象徵意義極大,相信銀行為明年作預算時,就要兩手準備。


另一個因素是,自9月中以來,存貸息率未有作調高,反映可能有其他行政手段可用。看內地《財經》雜誌,見到企業債券不可再獲銀行擔保。其實內地與海外債市有異,內地保險公司,即內地企業債券最大認購者,是不能認購無銀行擔保的企業債券,令這些企業伸手借錢,不像以前般容易。話雖企業可以用資產抵押,甚至依靠母公司作擔保,但缺乏保險公司認購,企業集資能力始終有限,問題何時獲解決,更沒有時間表而言。


向內地銀行借錢又難、發債也不易,或許可解釋內地房地產商近年趕著出來香港上市集資的原因!此外,房地產商又要趕著增加土地儲備,銀根又收緊,只好向外吸水,故此早前有內地房地產股試圖發票據,可惜胎死腹中,未來內地房地產股「批盪」配股集資機會恐不少了。


未來需注意內地房產股的資金周轉情況,不要因地價升值而興奮不已,因為那些純屬帳面利潤,而項目發展需時兩至三年,所以蓋好物業兼售出,收到款項才算是真正收入,否則市況逆轉,有公司出現周轉不靈情況,也絕不為奇。


(12月10日刊於《am730》)

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