Friday, November 30, 2007

美元套息愈玩愈勁

美國減息憧憬又再觸動全球股票市場神經,環球投資氣氛好像一夜之間完全改變過來,不計內地半封閉市場,恒指急增4%,成亞洲股市升幅之冠,藍籌股幾乎全線造好,僅電訊盈科(008)斯人獨憔悴,股價竟逆市跌1.5%至4.62元,曾低見4.59元,與今年收市新低4.58元相距不遠,真的令人欷歔。美國聯邦儲備局在其黃皮書(Beige Book)報告中隱約見到經濟放緩,如零售開支整體不感樂觀,或多或少對假日零售季節前景感悲觀。那麼減息怎可成炒作借口呢?除了將壞消息當好消息外,因息口下調,資金更迫住出來買貨,大家互相追捧下,資產價格只會有升無跌。


禤中怡曾指套息交易(carry trade)對股市影響深遠,本月8日曾話「美元套息交易」,即沽空美元,用作參與其他高息投資,若果美息續降,投資成本更輕也,估不到早兩日連彭博通訊(bloomberg)也有篇文章話,借美元作套息交易回報有17%,較借日圓和瑞士法郎回報表現更佳,那些賓架拿著平美元去掃貨,藉此擴大回報,可見有賓架收數十個月花紅落袋,總有成功原因。不過,今次市況轉變,究竟是大戶為年結埋單計數前,先行粉飾櫥窗,營造利好表現,抑或資金市重回,就要多加留意。


大市升,不代表隻隻股票都造好,有些股份亦受無妄之災,像大酒店(045)只是經營豪華酒店和住宅出租等業務,本來風平浪靜,估不到菲律賓竟然有軍人揀該集團持有76%股權,於當地首都馬尼拉商業區的半島酒店,作叛變地點,生意無得做不特止,從電視機畫面所見,軍隊操入酒店內,禤中怡即時打個突,最悲壯的恐怕是造成流血場面,實在不敢想像。這間酒店經營肯定全面停頓,即使事件平息後,相信也需要些少時間才能正式全面營運。


禤中怡即望大酒店股價,上午還企在13.42元,微升4仙,下午開市更曾見13.5元,但發生叛變事件後,股價開始走低,收市反跌4仙至13.34元,成交額2,951.7萬元。


這間菲律賓半島酒店於今年上半年出租率續提升至74%,再看看中期報告,每方呎每月平均收益17元,相對香港半島酒店的316元低很多,反映影響有限。最不幸的是,該酒店原來才剛完成客房、宴會廳和大堂等多個地方的翻新工程,特別是那個雲石地面經裝甲車一壓,相信凶多吉少,又要多花一筆,未知管理層有否投保呢?對該集團而言,唯一好消息可能是日本東京新半島酒店於9月初開幕,聽聞迅即成為當地熱點,可見生意也差不到那裡,如果表現佳,或許可抵銷菲律賓業務貢獻減少。


面對布殊政府為見樓價止跌回升,在明年總統選舉年增籌碼而減息,及菲律賓政局動盪,可見這些政治風險對企業運作和投資的影響有多厲害。


(11月30日刊於《am730》)

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