Monday, November 26, 2007

政策市最可怕

上周五見到隻中外運航運(368)未能受惠港股反彈500點而造好,反跌13%,令一眾捧場客「坐艇」,相信保薦人中銀國際和瑞銀要多點功夫,不要讓大家失望。至於其他新股好像未受影響繼續排隊上市,正招股的中鐵(390)似乎獲投資者垂青,禤中怡上周六往銀行,已見有散戶話要開本票入飛,而睇報紙見電子認購(eIPO)更因認購熱烈而被「迫爆」,反映大家仍熱衷於這個「抽獎」遊戲。


話雖大市反彈,其實上周恒指已累積下跌1,073點了,且曾迫近26,000點關口,幸得四叔「出口術」話拋100億元買貨才回升。由於本周四為期指結算日,波動難免,加上內地股市跌個沒完沒了,中資股似未脫困。


其實,股市傳統有牛市、熊市外,上落市和資金市亦常見,但最可怕的非「政策市」莫屬,因為前述的4種市況都是反映投資者對港股的不同看法,而對市場趨向所產生的影響。


不過,政策市就絕對是徹底不同了。當政府領導高層推出一項新政策,甚至只想出一個政策,市場便會受這些主觀措施所左右。遠的不說,就以內地為例,當8月20日外匯管理局一聲「港股直通車」開通,整個港股就立刻亢奮起來,大小股民也炒得樂不可支。


從表面上看,或可說是「資金市」,因為內地股民可以來港買股票,金額更是非同小可,但看清楚,消息開始滿天飛,內地報紙話最快9月初「開車」,然後大家估有多少個億來港買貨,在有概念而不知實際情況的幻想下,大家便有無限想像空間,大市何時見頂無人知,連財經名咀們也不敢明言真正高位在哪裡,加上消息未落實,就可繼續炒下去,直至概念消失為止。好了,又話限制金額,甚至煞停傳聞開始流傳後,進一步符合其「概念」不真實性,待本月中,溫總外訪接受香港傳媒追問,才承認又要有法律監管;保護香港資本市場穩定云云;更要命的是說股民要接受風險教育,甚至聽取包括香港金融當局等意見,即一句講完:短期無港股直通車也。港股便受這種政策市拖累,迅速猛跌,難怪有人話港股A股化,因為A股何嘗不是被不同政策傳聞等影響,可見政策市之威力。


由於政策市滲入「人性」這個元素(為何不是由原來公布港股直通車的外匯管理局負責解話呢?),投資者更難估計。04年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Finn E. Kydland便曾話,阿根廷因為經濟政策缺乏一致性、失信於民,因此損害經濟成長。或許譬喻未必完全相符,但值得反思。


面對這種場面,禤中怡想起董伯伯當年向一間傳媒話,無再講「八萬五」政策,就等如「無咗」的類似言論,簡直有異曲同工之妙!


(11月26日刊於《am730》)

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