Friday, November 16, 2007

VTech看美國

藍籌上上落落,三四線股熱鬧多一點,甚至出現神乎奇技的場面,先來國際(933)又彈29%至0.75元,但基本因素欠奉,本業的成衣業務虧損,全靠「直接投資」搵錢,即持債務證券等。


至於永義國際(1218)旗下隻永義實業(616)股價更升35.9%!當然成為逆市升幅之冠,但股價收市報0.106元,單日增0.028元,注碼少,升幅多,難怪投資者對仙股樂此不疲。但又有多少人會拿份年報望望,還是如該公司上市編號般「淥一淥」,即日鮮炒完就掉頭走呢?


談到實業看前景,就不能忽視偉易達(303)份業績報告,因為該公司於歐美紥根多年,還經歷過收購禍害的煎熬,相信觀點會審慎得多。


主要重點必然是美國市場。該集團的黃子欣主席在業績報告話,預期今年感恩節及聖誕節,美國的銷售額將比去年下跌,原因當然是例牌那幾個:信貸市場出現問題、樓市下滑、油價高企和消費開支增長放緩等,而這些影響已反映在其電訊產品及電子學習產品的疲弱銷售數據上。


從以上可見,該集團對美國前景看得麻麻,甚至有看淡的感覺,由於這些工業股站在最前線,相信對經濟敏感度往往比投資者甚至基金高,因為訂單必然是早半年接收,即使近年訂單期變得愈來愈短,但3個月後的變化,多少可以從他們的生意中反映出來。


那麼投資者又如何演繹呢?首先,出口美國市場為主的工業股就要留神,需了解其產品組合在市場的認受性及競爭能力。第二,現金儲備較高的必然可度過寒冬,當市道轉佳,就是價值重估之時,而最後就是像偉易達這類環球性出口工業股,利用其他市場拉上補下的方法,抵銷某一市場的影響,故業務分布比例更形重要。


禤中怡閱畢那份業績報告,自然向做工業的朋友打招呼,查問近況。主要造鞋的朋友話,按其出口生意計,今年聖誕節旺季檔期生意不俗,比去年反有增加,相信因鞋類產品屬必需品,而且做年輕人市場的話,一般也不會太差,相反一些高檔產品則可能面對樓市轉差因素拖累,消費者即使沒有實質打擊,多少也構成心理影響。


佢說今年做工業亦較辛苦,如人民幣匯價升值未停,變相內地生產成本持續向上,兼且訂單用美元報價,悲慘情況可想而知。部分地區提高最低工資,身處周邊地區的公司即使不受影響,但員工懂得「水向低流」,管理層自然也要面對加薪壓力,以免流失惡化。佢還特別提到政治問題更構成不必要的影響,如歐盟針對內地皮鞋進口,是否涉傾銷等問題,已令貿易商於內地落訂單有所保留,多少也會有影響,但實際情況如何?當然是公司機密!


(11月16日刊於《am730》)

9 Comments:

At 3:03 PM, Blogger greatsoup said...

據上年的業績報告,先來國際(933)持有的現金和證券大約六億元,加上幾乎全無負債,大約折為每股五毛錢,以停牌前的股價停留在四毛五左右,未計大約一兩億的殼價,它是一隻典型的cigar butts,也未算為基本因素欠奉。

只是我的一點意見,若有得罪,請多多見諒。

 
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