Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Mark溫過檔

阿里巴巴(1688)未有令人失望,股價一飛沖天去,「百倍PE冇有怕」。看見大手成交超過4,634宗,大戶一球一球錢湧入,就知道保薦人分配股份的厲害之處,讓機構投資者唔夠分,齊齊需要在市場吸納,形成搶購心理,股價自然愈推愈高,升幅之大足以令散戶也為之心動,相信獲利離場的已不少,算是發一筆「小」橫財,而擔任保薦人的摩根士丹利和高盛應記一功。那麼貨源歸邊後,供應更少,從傳統智慧告之,股價會否愈挾愈高呢?

大市亦相當配合該股在主板首日掛牌,雖然未完全收復失地,恒指已從低位強力反彈,相信今日續有力向上,話雖認購阿里巴巴的龐大資金解凍,為大市增添力量,但其實有不少是孖展認購,畢竟可借足九成,反映真金白銀拿出來認購的始終有限,那個4,500億元凍結資金中,有多少是借回來的,相信佔一個不少的比重,故此靠那批回籠的資金對推動大市重越3萬點,可能會有點難度。

當然,炒股置富成為近期熱門話題,他又賺數百萬元,你又贏幾十萬元,好像信手拈來,但禤中怡仍提醒,股票投資有一定風險,況且近期風高浪急,靠炒賣實非易事,故努力工作方為上策,因為經驗才是最有價值的東西,不要被眼前的帳面利潤所麻醉。

股市興旺之外,其實匯市亦受美元匯價疲不能興所帶動,投資者樂於在歐元、澳元中打滾,故此近期金融行業非常熱鬧,加強人手已成為最頭痛的問題。禤中怡最近便聽聞恒生銀行(011)獲猛將加盟其外匯部門,相信又可提升其知名度,因為他就是經常曝光的溫灼培(Mark Wan)也。

Mark可謂事業順利,從1992年加入敦沛金融,之後嶄露頭角,分析商品期貨等頭頭是道,特別精於研究油價走勢,故後期更晉升為資料研究部高級經理。所謂「魚唔過塘唔肥」,他轉向加盟新加坡大銀行在香港的旗艦,即出任星展銀行財資市場環球金融副總裁,繼續向市場提供分析和意見,但處理的範圍主要以匯價為主,相信其表現吸引恒生人事部的注意。

今次Mark在年尾前轉投新東家,定必有優厚條件,但另一個吸引其過檔的,相信是再度夥拍舊主管也。現任恒生銀行副董事總經理的馮孝忠,之前便擔任星展銀行大中華區財資市場董事總經理,相信他們曾經共事一段時間,今次可謂故劍重逢。

不過,在評論匯價方面,他們兩人都深受傳媒喜愛,日後會否分途出擊呢?至於恒生積極搶人,多少可見柯清輝為首的管理層更主動出擊,而股價能夠升至148元,比母公司滙豐控股(005)股價146.3元還高(當然規模不能作比較!),可見該行風格確更進取。

(11月7日刊於《am730》)

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