Wednesday, October 31, 2007

PE炒到730倍

大市升到麻木,恒指與32,000點近距離一望後回落,幸好尾市仍微增51點至31,638點,再在收市見新高,但股份已個別發展,甚至有回落,主要靠四大內地銀行支撐,不讓淡友有翻身機會,但小心後市挾好倉。


禤中怡見到有兩隻新股準備招股,當然要望實,因為阿里巴巴(1688)炒旺新股,即使百倍PE(市盈率)都不怕,入飛不絕,萬一抽到的話,就更像抽中頭獎般。


至於跟隨招股的眾安(672)屬潮興的內地房地產股,理應會吸引散戶注意,因為四叔推介的也是內地房地產股如碧桂園(2007)、雅居樂(3383)等,之不過,眾安招股認真神奇,預測今年盈利3.44億元(人民幣,下同),但當中含有大量「水份」,即非經營性項目貢獻也,包括投資物業重估增加3.15億元,加上一個叫做「確認遞延稅項的法定稅率下降」的部分,又涉1,100萬元,即全年實質賺取的只有1,800萬元,以招股上限6.67元計算,PE要730.5倍!相信這是久久未見的進取態度,即使計入投資物業重估收益,也要38.2倍,你話公司管理層有多看好前景!


回想起碧桂園當時招股市盈率最高為21.3倍,真的不可同日而語,莫非市場興旺到令人難以置信?再看看眾安06年度業績,該集團純利亦只有8,196萬元,即使不計投資物業重估所增加的3,297萬元,相信也有4,899萬元盈利,那麼是否代表07年實質純利反比06年有所下跌呢?至於為何在短短一年間,投資物業重估能夠大增,令業績「猛進」,原來最重要的是,有個在杭州叫「恒隆廣場」項目(與恒隆地產(101)應無任何關係)於年底落成,屆時就可以由「在建物業」變成投資物業入帳,認真高明。


禤中怡還喜歡看公司負債狀況,因為分分鐘影響營運表現。眾安流動負債隨業務擴大而滾存至18.8億元,部分貸款原來向非銀行的機構和公司僱員借的。眾安解釋,銀行限制向房地產商提供營運資金的融資才出現這種情況,法律顧問已表明此種做法違反內地法例,但上市前已償還這類貸款,顧問亦補充不會造成法律後果,但禤中怡看來看去,實不明白資金來源的箇中底蘊。


市場關注的另一元素必然是cash flow,即現金流,如果公司周轉不靈,即應收帳無法收到,怎樣繳付應付帳呢?眾安在過去3年的現金流量就夠勁,每年來自經營方面,以及投資活動方面所產生的都是現金流出淨額,禤中怡以為看到科網熱潮時期的公司帳目,只管「燒錢」,總有出頭天似的。當然,做地產需時發展,回籠資金要再投資,就像流水作業般運作,但除了經營風險外,其他宏觀風險又怎樣管理妥當,相信是財務主管的責任了。禤中怡已提到內地建立土儲,彈藥不能少,所以近年大量發展商登陸港股,但投資者也要做分析研究,免浪費資源。


(10月31日刊於《am730》)

10 Comments:

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阿里巴巴的故事叫阿里巴巴和和四十大盜..
看著瞧

 
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