Tuesday, October 30, 2007

抽水警號輪流響

如果你是基金經理,面對這種場面,究竟會如何取捨呢?港股一口氣破完30,000點不特止,昨日再添成千點,大家明知超買已屆多日,奈何所有甚麼技術派、圖表派,通通都不及中資派。


禤中怡見到這種形勢,開始感受到基金經理的壓力,以為自己的投資組合回報已不俗,豈知股市又創新高,整個指標(Benchmark)水平已升到登天,肩負為客戶資金投資的專業基金經理,其全年投資表現也不能與指標距離太遠,甚至需要跑贏大市,否則如何向客戶交代?


面對這種交出成績的壓力,結果形成今日你追我趕的局面,且看藍籌股大手掃貨之盛,機構投資者好像不問價般,大手成交更比比皆是,為股市火上加油,整個「大棚」愈搭愈高,的確觸目驚心,但甚麼內地經濟增長勁,上市公司盈利佳,息口下降利經濟,更已成為順口溜,大家好像愈來愈有信心,即使僅餘一點高處不勝寒的感覺,都有充份原因抵消掉了,那麼,真的一點破綻也沒有?


之前信和置業(083)先出擊,配股拿了43億元,為藍籌地產股集資熱身,新鴻基地產(016)昨日再為大市響起警號,傳出配股集資,一下子抽走市場逾百億元資金,儘管對比今時今日,每日逾千億元成交,大市動力或不會有太大影響,但更重要的是,很多地產股都有抽水可能,兼且size恐怕非同小可,屆時就會對市場產生心理影響。


地產商為進軍內地房地產市場,的確有資金需要大量增加土地儲備,而內地版圖甚廣,如不準備足夠甚至大量彈藥,分分鐘一兩個項目就把內部資源消耗殆盡,加上發展項目並非短期可將資金回籠,倒不如先袋錢更佳。君不見連碧桂園(2007)也要發行優先票據嗎?


其實,資金多到瀉,加上新地股價今年以來已累積上升78.9%至159.9元,如果公司管理層不執行上市目的之一,即在股票市場配售新股集資,可能反被股東責罵失先機,故拿錢投資實屬正常,但最重要的是集資為了提高股東投資回報,因每股盈利將會因股份數目增加而被攤薄,倘盈利無法增加,變相每股賺少咗,那就愧對股東了。


不少藍籌股已錄大量升幅,還有落後股份嗎?本來被3G困擾的和黃(013),股價近日已見開始爆上,收市報98.4元,準備晉身成為百元俱樂部成員,成為第10隻藍籌股的股價超過100元也。原來該集團於意大利3G的負責人,即CEO Vincenzo Novari 又爆響口,話母公司售三成股權是可能考慮的方案之一。早前德國電訊已暗示對和黃的歐洲3G業務感到興趣,意味有買家睇中,若果成事,一來讓和黃獲特殊利潤,最重要的是,可以為業務重新釐定一個企業價值,你話今日股價會點呢?


(10月30日刊於《am730》)

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