Thursday, October 18, 2007

96定97?

港股再度展現強大韌力,勢要搶上高位。如果淡友少點實力,或者想插深一點而不平倉的話,相信早已「打靶」離場。恒指全日又靠「單天保至尊」,一隻中國移動(941)就幫手抽高141點,收市報147.9元,升3.2%,而滙豐控股(005)重越150元,加上新鴻基地產(016)也升3.4%,合力帶動恒指升逾60點,單是推這3隻股份,便已佔升市點數的58%,可見好友不想太淡。


雖然美股被「Ben哥」(美國聯儲局長伯南克)嚇親,話憂慮美國樓市冷卻影響整體經濟,令周一及周二連跌兩日,但相信壞消息已消化,可望造好,支持港股今日可能續有運行,恒指要破30,000點料不難。


其實,不要說散戶還沒有習慣指數企在這個水平,就連專業投資者也有疑問。禤中怡剛睇完份對沖基金的報告,提到現時亞洲區股市的走向,究竟是站在1996和1999年水平,抑或是接近1997年和2000年的情況。


記得1996和1999年是市場牛氣當道,而1997和2000年則面臨亞洲金融風暴和科網股爆破的年份,還記得禤中怡提到本月19日,即明日就是亞洲金融風暴10周年的「大日子」嗎?但報告無方向,大客點buy呀?所以他們話中期仍投向利好一面,即小回後再創高峰,故續揸長倉為主。


其實,據對沖基金研究機構Eurekahedge的9月報告指出,除了歐洲的對沖基金表現較差外,其他地區的回報仍不俗,似乎未有受到美國次按問題和銀行收緊銀根影響,特別是以中國為重心的對沖基金回報達8.5%,令今年以來的回報高達54%。由於揸好倉有著數,可見對沖基金如果造淡,肯定被大戶贖回,另覓投資專家埋堆,所以現時不會同市場「拗氣」吧!


值得一提的是,印度上月表現更佳,對沖基金平均回報達9.8%,當中以揸長短倉的基金更受惠股市大升12.9%,回報高達10%。當地投資環境如此秀麗,皆因海外直接投資源源不絕地流入,引致印度盧比兌美元匯價強勁升值,資金更積極投入股市,難怪當地政府要出招趕錢走,引致股市昨日摔了一交,但收市幾乎收復失地,只跌1.7%,相信跌市反成入市機會,看來外資大戶早已掌握新興市場的政策多變特性。


講起多變,禤中怡還想就昨日話交通銀行(3328)和鞍鋼股份(347)的老頂所作言論來點補充,相信該兩間公司一如所料被監管機構「招呼」,解釋盈利增長預測何來。交行話數字為目標,勉強過關。至於鞍鋼卻話無授權任何人士作預計利潤的聲明,那麼講利潤預測的董事長張曉剛,其在董事會地位算甚麼呢?抑或是講完不算數?還是傳媒寫錯?甚至是遠在北京,山高皇帝遠,干卿底事?難明!


(10月17日刊於《am730》)

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