Friday, October 12, 2007

回報媲美大耳窿

剛話好戲陸續有來,恒指又創歷史新高,但國企股表現更突出,中國神華(1088)有A股升到停板帶挈,H股一日竟漲11.2元至57.85元,單日升24%之多,可見大戶追貨之狠勁,簡直像二三線股般炒賣,更推動國指增932點,因神華一隻就貢獻220點!


買港股回報如此吸引,其他投資工具要找人幫襯就認真不容易。當然,分散投資的定義就是為了減少風險,所以始終有人會選擇定期存款這類安全產品,但對金融機構來說,始終是微利生意,若果想賺取非利息收入,當然要向追求回報的投資者埋手,讓他們肯拿出大筆資金,故此金融機構靠推廣外,產品本身也要想法子,增加投資賣點。


像近年興起的ELN(可換股票據,Equity Linked Note),又是一種另類投資工具,回報多寡視乎票據揀選的參考股份表現為主,如掛鈎的股份股價升幅到達票據所定水平,持有票據的投資者便可獲得回報。


對發行商來說,面對今日這個大升市,投資者自己落手落腳直接買港股,自然好過玩ELN,所以要吸引顧客買ELN,其中回報條款就不能太「孤寒」。禤中怡同賓架朋友談起,就知道生意之難做程度。原來有間大行想發行ELN,一年回報最高竟然可達超過50%的水平!即代表投資1萬元,隨時有5,000元回報,對又想賺錢,又怕輸大錢的投資者來說,試問這種投資去邊度搵?再了解多一點,聽聞該ELN選擇掛鈎的股份之一,就是近期熱爆的港交所(388)也,再加兩隻中資股作為一個參考組合。


ELN計算回報方法有很多種,簡單而言,假設發行期兩年,而每隔兩個月便會參考組合中股價表現最差股份作計算,倘達預定股價升1%目標,ELN持有人便可獲2%回報,而在發行期內將會共計算12次,如每次都達標,總回報就有24%。但一般來說,如提供高達40%總回報已屬罕見。


禤中怡記得法例規定借錢年息最高不能過60厘,收取超過該息率的放貸人已可叫「大耳窿」,但今日投資回報逾50%,就像發行商向你借錢付利息一樣,「利息」認真高。當然大戶拿著你的資金,自有其一套賺錢方程式,甚至採取槓桿式運作,回報隨時翻幾番,回報定必比你高。


從另一面看,亦可引證高風險高回報這個定律,多少反映今日股票風險程度非低,而這種投資策略更有與大戶對賭的味道,而你以為安安樂樂坐定定,憧憬未來享高回報。但若大市逆轉,票據到期,隨時收回組合內的股份,但批股份作價可能已「潛水」,拋售股份只會蝕本,最終變成持有股份做長線投資者。禤中怡重申並非阻人贏大錢,但要學懂投資風險,尤其是這種風高浪急的環境,分分鐘被淹沒也未知。


(10月12日刊於《am730》)

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