Tuesday, October 09, 2007

地鐵撐撐撐

港股又玩過山車,早上企在高位,好友以為又得食,怎知下午開市即玩變臉絕技,3時左右還可以在28,300點爭持,但在十多分鐘內,恒指急挫300點至28,000點附近,然後上落200點後,臨收市前半小時,又再大瀉300點,低見27,651點,令好友宣布「返魂乏術」,所有上升點數不僅完全蒸發,還反跌61點。


港股昨日傳聞不絕,包括內地「港股直通車」設投資總額限制,並非之前憧憬的源源不絕,資金無限支持。而新鴻基地產(016)再傳配股集資,引發沽盤,令該股跌1.2%至129.4元收市。


其實,這些消息在市場流傳已有數日,並非今日才「石頭爆出來」,況且在黃金周期間,內地投資者已炒得不亦樂乎,真的要等合法直通車嗎?而新地配股傳聞上周已出現過,集團本身負債比率亦低,為何會於06年5月配售新股集資近80億元後,不足兩年內又再配售新股呢?莫非那般等錢使?可見大概只是為跌市找藉口罷了。


至於進入內地A股市場的H股則繼續受惠,像中國神華(1088)今日掛牌,H股股價升1.7%至45.8元,大手成交亦相當「墟冚」,逾1,000宗,成交股數逾5,148萬股,佔83.7%比重,兩球錢掃貨的比比皆是,尾市更有一手36.8萬股成交,作價46元,交易額就超過1,700萬元,實行力頂到底。相信市場繼續找尋準備發A股的H股寶藏。


講到今日戲碼,相信非地鐵(066)場世紀大deal莫屬,因為特區政府籌備多時,將檔九鐵營運服務加所涉物業發展項目轉給地鐵,目前僅欠地鐵股東點頭。


不過,上周ISS(Institutional Shareholder Services)的反對聲音的確非同小可。因為這機構所給予的推薦建議真的可以左右大局,企業更相當重視,最簡單例子,就是02年Compaq電腦和Hewlett-Packard(HP)的巨型合併交易,ISS投贊成票,最終交易亦順利過關。當然,這裡是香港,散戶懶理,最重要的是有機會增加派息,股價繼續升。


證券界朋友更話,地鐵股價在短短一個月間,炒上近20%至25.6元,除了基金加機構大戶搏命掃貨外,散戶能有如此威力嗎?今日持有賺錢貨,無理由希望股價打回原形吧!舉手贊成就可以奪得大批地皮項目,樓面面積增至3,580萬方呎,而新地於6月底在港的土地儲備也只是4,350萬方呎,實屬有得揮唔輸蝕。


更重要的是,地鐵和九鐵的物業項目屬車站上蓋或附近項目,交通因素已屬賣點之一,單位要叫好價絕無難度,所以合併後就可直接變身做地產股,價值就屬另一級別了,大戶當然幫手炒得興高采烈,政府亦樂得大家支持,況且票價加幾多都不及賣樓啦!


(10月9日刊於《am730》)

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