Tuesday, September 25, 2007

股壇長毛失威

甚麼叫做節節敗退,且看淡友累買累輸就知道,恒指愈升愈有,不斷破位而上,以為開高後要調整,豈知連升4日,望著那張逐步向上的走勢圖,究竟是負利率來臨,趕資金入市,抑或是大戶信心十足呢?


中國石油(857)未受股神巴菲特多番減持影響,股價單日仍增10%之多,除了油價創新高外,市場炒回歸A股相信屬主因。由於近期回歸A股的國企股資產質素不俗,故其A股勢必獲內地同胞踴躍支持,股價都會比H股股價為高,形成互相拉扯的關係,帶挈其H股水漲船高,且看該股周五掛牌表現就知道。


建設銀行(939)A股今日率先在上海交易所掛牌,最樂觀的證券商便估計其價值可見14元人民幣之高!足足比定價6.45元人民幣,升1.17倍之多,即使與該股H股股價昨日收市報7.64元比較,依然有溢價達83%。以為空談嗎?望望中信銀行(998),A股股價較H股股價的溢價幅度有87%!大龍頭股如中國工商銀行(1398)的AH股溢價幅度相對較小,只有20.7%。按照現價走,相信又會上演你追我逐局面。


不過,估計還估計,有時都要睇業績表才知真相,好像做高爾夫球產品的順龍控股(361)昨日公布中期業績,差不多全部經營數字都倒退,營業額跌8.4%至約2.57億元,拆開來看,高爾夫球設備產品營業額更大跌24.6%。雖然高爾夫球袋業務營業額大升72%,但營業額僅8,000萬元,無補於事,令整體純利跌38%,中期息更大減近四成。業績差,特別是高爾夫球設備產品收益下跌,管理層總有解釋:「主要原因為與本集團主要客戶進行短暫性業務整固所致。」這個客就是該集團美國最大客戶,皆因雙方未能就若干產品款式達成妥協,故失去生產該款式產品訂單的商機。


為甚麼要提到這間公司?因為略有記憶的話,該股就是股壇長毛David Webb於去年底的聖誕貼士也。去年12月1日,該股股價才0.87元,經他品評後立刻變鳳凰,股價之後急彈36.7%至1.19元。可惜好景不常,股價緩緩走低,直至今年4月23日收市,更跌穿1元關口,之後未能浮上水面,而昨日收市報0.83元,意味聽David Webb建議的投資者,倘若高位將資源投入該股的話,恐怕已成應節食品「大閘蟹」,兼錯失今次在這股上升巨濤中,踏浪而去。


順龍話影響屬短暫性,兼且已在新一季取回那個客戶的訂單,相信下半年度高爾夫球設備產品業務會有合理改善。況且今年才過了三季,如投資表現以一年計數的話,David Webb的投資建議,還要多看一季才算數。


不過,順龍受該主要客戶的生意影響這麼嚴重,好像未見該集團發出盈利警告,以提升透明度,David Webb是不是要再出動呢?


(9月25日刊於《am730》)

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