Monday, September 24, 2007

時光倒流好定壞

恒指由8月17日大奇跡日的最低位19,386點大翻身起計,直到上周五,只需要短短個多月時間,已經大升6,500點之多,其中港交所(388)股價更厲害,一隻大價股在一個月間,股價竟然能夠差不多翻一番,因為上周五收市報219.2元,而上月21日收市才報123.3元,累積升幅高達77.7%。有技術派老友同禤中怡講,一口氣急升的結果是,長線的技術指標,上升到嚴重超買境地。這個情況似曾相識,原來有史以來,曾經出現過一次,就是73年股災前,同樣出現嚴重偏高情況,唯一不同的是,當時未有港交所這隻股份而已。


老友話,先撇開港股後市是否如73年插水式急瀉不談,在一個相對成熟市場,技術指標的極度偏高,是很少發生的。直覺上,在港股直通車一事上,資金瘋狂炒作,既不能排除有內地春江鴨早於直通車股民,先來港一步,又或者外資大戶挾高,等直通車股民來港大派發。老友有所感慨,資金瘋狂,同73年無甚分別,港股是進步了,還是退步了?香港是國際金融中心,還是一個大賭場?各位真要三思。


外邊有小道傳言,有窩輪發行商,於大奇跡日反彈以來,輸錢以億元計數,今年花紅可能凍過水。姑勿論是真定假,信息帶出若然精明如窩輪發行商都蝕入肉,我等小散戶,繼續有胡要食的風險有多大呢?


堪稱中國大好友的美國投資大師羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)曾建議內地居民若有機會,應該來港買H股,因為A、H股存在溢價問題,買H股是黃金機會,在可預見將來,是A股存在泡沫,股價將下跌,而H股則上升,從而收窄差距。


禤中怡認為,若認定A股是泡沫,以H股去追逐一個有泡沫的股市,這種叫投機而並非投資行為,投機是短炒,並非長揸,大家應該要將心態調校。


翻查資料,國企股數於8月底已見14,000點時,平均周息率(簡單而言,就是每年平均股息除以股價)只得1.18厘,是有紀錄以來最低,至於整體市盈率就升至約26倍,何況上周五更已撲上15,693點。若然買入一籃子國企股,其息率回報肯定跑輸通脹率及定期存款,連同26倍市盈率,國企股指數是吸引還是偏貴,抑或是業務高增長就無有怕?


此外,上周五石油價格大升,中國石油(857)股價跟升,但就連下游受累股如上海石化(338)及儀征化纖(1033)都一樣狂升。禤中怡心諗,又關你乜事?如此類推,另一隻受累油價狂升的中國石化(386),未來日子一樣會照升。因為在資金市下,游資瘋狂簇擁國企股,已經變得毋須理由。更何況,中石化佔國指第二大比重,大戶挾期指淡倉,面上早已刻著「擺明車馬」四個大字。


(9月24日刊於《am730》)

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