Thursday, September 20, 2007

Ben哥擺脫格老陰影

美國聯儲局主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)上任一年半後,終於擺脫前朝元老格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的陰影,能夠真正獨當一面,再次展示金融政策對市場影響的威力,令經濟學者和分析員大跌眼鏡。


這招「半厘神拳」出其不意,相信那些淡倉盤昨日屍橫遍野,現貨月期指在現貨裂口高開逾935點後,淡友基本上已舉手投降,惟有迫於斬倉,且見成交合約逾7.6萬張就知戰況之慘烈,而收市較現貨高水仍133點,倘美股續造好,今日可能繼續挾,想起已覺恐怖。


伯南克這招不但快,兼且「狠」,0.5厘的幅度如果分開兩次減,雖然總減幅一樣,威力就不夠一次過大,兼且息口維持不變多時,一下子作大幅調整,市場要立即應變,警覺性就要提高,可見Ben哥做接班人並非浪得虛名,而股市跟隨配合大升下,最低程度上,可以讓那些因次按損手的金融大亨,有機會來個大翻身,次按債券價格又再值錢,業主續按的息率亦可獲紓緩。


由於息率一向具有周期性的特色,即一旦開始減息,就不會只減兩三次便收手。回想聯儲局在格老主政時代,為應付當時美國股市暴跌和科技投資驟減,即科網泡沫爆破所引發的經濟衰退,美國聯儲局自2001年初開始,便連續12次減息,希望扭轉局勢,所以今次節目應該只是剛揭幕上演。禤中怡亦已提過,減息的其中一個作用就是刺激借貸,希望增加投資以帶動經濟增長,如今一減就半厘,反映要「刺激」的力度相當大,多少有點隱藏殺機的味道,因為美國樓市問題嚴峻早已街知巷聞,之前財金官員救火動作不大,或許問題惡化,非出此招不可,如果屬實,即大市其實是將壞消息(樓市下滑、斷供上升)當好消息(減息)炒,忘記減息的真正原因,故此後市仍拖著一條大尾巴,小心「一拍兩散」。


不過,全球股市陷入亢奮狀態之中,港股當然懶理美國次按凶險,照升如儀,增幅更跑贏亞洲區其他對手,好友大戶可開香檳,皆因大藍籌全線向上,有贏無輸。仔細一看,在3,111隻成交股份中,的確有2,683隻報升,但亦有757隻股份下跌,並非全面造好,反映歸邊情況嚴重,起碼細價股近期難獲垂青。


在藍籌股中,相信投資者最開心的,就是見到電訊盈科(008)股價單日升4.7%至5.08元,但究竟股價純粹跟大市走,抑或是黃金富話,計劃提出收購電盈資產建議刺激所致,就不得而知。從基本因素看,電盈現有業務難有增長故事可講,息率亦不見吸引,難視為公用股,故倒不如尋找其他寶藏,相信更符合時間成本效益,無謂跟隨那些消息團團轉。


(9月20日刊於《am730》)

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