Thursday, September 06, 2007

南韓人搶買港股啟示

港股在亞洲市場表現一枝獨秀,看看日股和韓股下跌,恒指卻輕易創高峰,一隻中國移動(941)升1.7%至105.6元,就幫恒指進帳近80點,加上地產股繼續炒美國減息,幫助樓市續造好,特別是那些細價樓必受刺激,股價續彈,可惜中資金融股要抖抖氣,指數尾市升勢收窄。


禤中怡剛話地鐵(066)令人期待,股價昨日亦不失禮,股價大升7.18%至20.6元,自然成為藍籌升幅之冠,成交股數更由前日的1,800多萬股,一下子急增至6,468萬股,成交額逾13億元,相信為數不少基金撲入,斥幾球、幾球掃貨屬等閒事,大手成交逾550宗,佔總成交股數76%。


禤中怡相信這些大基金看完地鐵那份股東通函,見到政府賣大包將九鐵物業平售予地鐵,進一步建立其「地產股」的形象,難怪紛紛「落疊」支持,像近期其他地產股被狂炒般受追捧。有這些大額股份投贊成票的話,相信下月就兩鐵合併表決時,政府要過關的難度就不大了。


正當大家等待內地散戶捧錢買港股之際,其實,有不少海外投資者同樣垂青港股,就像內地旅客來港旅遊外,很多日本和歐洲的大豪客亦會前來這粒東方之珠花錢一樣,故此要照顧同鄉,亦不要待薄海外朋友。


據南韓證券部門Korea Securities Depository(KSD)統計顯示,南韓投資者湧入中港股票市場,單是今年以來,直至8月為止,該批投資者買入中國股票的數目已增一倍至8,097名,單是上月統計,當地投資者持有中國股票便達1.97億美元(約15.3億港元),較去年12月底足足升2.34倍。


可惜的是,KSD未有披露所謂的中國股票,究竟是透過QFII(合資格境外機構投資者)機制買內地A股,抑或是直接買香港上市的國企和紅籌股,但禤中怡推測後者機會較大,畢竟買貨較為容易。


KSD又指南韓個人投資者持有港股市值於上月便有4.22億美元(約33億港元),大幅上升近兩倍。相反南韓投資者卻顯著減持其他海外市場如歐美股票,跌幅達31%。


雖然,南韓投資者所持海外股票總值在今年僅微增2%至210億美元(約1,638億港元),當中港股投資金額對市值逾17萬億元的香港股市來說,其影響力更是微乎其微,但要注意的是,海外投資者為甚麼會投港股信心的一票,而這種情況在其他地區又是否適用。


禤中怡曾看過中央電視台的一個財經節目,介紹日本證券商向當地投資者推介港股,尤其是中資股,原因不外乎對內地經濟感樂觀,業績增長強勁等。至於南韓的證券商則認為美國次按風險對港股影響有限,而「港股直通車」更為大市添動力,故看好前景。若果這個中心思想成立,是否意味新資金還要繼續湧入來呢?


(9月6日刊於《am730》)

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