Wednesday, September 05, 2007

染A國企要留神

國企股指數昨日表現與恒指變化有別,國指不單報升41點,成交額更增至320億元,相對恒指創完交易時段新高後,即跌18點收市,與及成交額僅273.9億元比較,國指交投連續兩日勝過藍籌股,究竟在內地北水南調「概念」下,市場主導地位誰屬呢?再看看數據,今年以來國指累積升幅已達38.67%,即使新推出的恒生中國H股金融行業指數累升31%。恒指只不過累升19.64%,表現仍算不俗,相對國指升幅來說,明顯可見,恒指已經落後於人。


其實,藍籌股業績普遍不弱(連電訊盈科(008)中期都多賺3%),可惜不及國企股那超乎想像的增長速度,動輒增50%,即使重量級國企也可輕易多賺一倍,試問怎追。當然,部分利潤主要來自投資收益,簡單而言,就是投資A股也,只要內地股市續瘋狂,單是這方面帳面利潤已非同小可,故此下半年這些國企股能否交出好成績,相信要多加留意內地股市走勢吧!


由於AH股股價存在重大差異,且看已有A股的中國遠洋(1919),只是發行新A股作收購,A股股價已見23.87元人民幣,而H股股價即時跟隨彈上見22.5元,曾升達18%,收市仍漲2.8%至19.56元,成交股數由周一的6,000多萬股,一下子增至逾1億股。至於建設銀行(939)更是另一隻準備在內地A股市場登陸的H股,收市仍升2.1%,反映「染A」的威力,而這種你追(H股)我逐(A股)的股價爭相攀上情況,可否視為重要參考,作為物色投資下一隻計劃染A的H股呢?


除國企股外,藍籌股中也有令人期待的股份。地鐵(066)因兩鐵合併就在眉睫,剛公布的股東通函就厚達545頁,份量十足,真的是「唔睇得都打得」。對一般小股民來說,要完全消化內裡的精髓,就認真有難度,即使是專業分析員,恐怕也要花費不少時間去研究。


禤中怡簡略一看,唱好的內容不少,像兩鐵合併後,每股盈利有增長,更重要的是,由於估值上升,收購九鐵物業發展權及投資物業可即賺23億元,損益表肯定靚靚。在股東通函中,禤中怡更發現地鐵幫九鐵就發展九龍南綫項目參與項目管理,收費6.8億元,若工程較原定時間為早兼低於預算成本,再獲1.1億元獎勵金,你話著唔著數,難怪股價升1.2%至19.22元,但世上真有如此「JETSO」?


談到著數,禤中怡見又有免費報紙入場砌過,進一步確認免費報章有得做,再看到《快週刊》訪問《am730》正、副社長,話8月份賺約60萬元,即讀者和報紙都有著數。禤中怡即致電馮副社長道賀,他笑著說連報考會考也被報道出來,實在有點搞笑,不過他亦想禤中怡代為說明一下,文中提到他讀過公開大學,實際情況應是他經公開大學完成了澳洲University of Wollongong的新聞碩士學位才對。


(9月5日刊於《am730》)

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