Tuesday, September 04, 2007

你精我唔笨

美國股市周一休息,昨日港股就玩低開,恒指高低位有300點,但收市有力回升,全日僅跌80點,以近期大波動市來說,這個點數差不多可算是微不足道,其實恒指只是原地踏步,但見到現貨月期指反高水79點,是不是想引人上釣?還是另有後著?


成交額逾848億元,不算多,但藍籌股成交額僅253億元,不及國企指數成分股的306億元交投額,反映國企股備受投資者支持。在20隻成交額最大股份中,僅滙豐控股(005)、港交所(388)和新鴻基地產(016)3隻本地重磅股,其餘席位已被國企股、中字輩股份和業務全部在內地的股份(像碧桂園(2007))所佔據,日後可能看國企股指數上落,更具反映大市走勢代表性。


話雖「港股直通車」遲遲未見有下聞,兼且傳聞叫停,但正好看到中國領導高層的政治手腕厲害之外,經濟手段亦相當高明。一個內地散戶可以買港股的消息,已令港股投資者開心得如癡如醉,將之前的悲觀氣氛完全轉變過來,可見內地對香港關切之情,領導人又有得加分。


當見到股價升得夠高嘛?不如等一等,慢慢來,避免內地股民買貴貨,實行「你精我唔笨」,兼且吊著大家的胃口,才有「概念」可炒,只要不落實細節,就會有憧憬。此外,今次讓消息逐步消化,兼帶出不同問題,如資金流出方法、可以買甚麼股份,甚至買窩輪等等作討論,都可作為日後人民幣「排洪」的基礎。


內地這種策略執行的改變方式,不像過去「一放就亂、一亂就收、一收就死」的硬橋硬馬策略,最重要的是,內地散戶循正式途徑可買港股已成事實,只是時間問題。畢竟內地人來港買股票、買保險、買樓、買珠寶等等都已是既定事實,大家真的還以為靠「港股直通車」才能走資嗎?


不過,禤中怡覺得,炒完「概念」,投資股票始終還看基本因素,究竟持有的股份是否值得買入。像東方航空(670)引入新加坡投資者包括淡馬錫和新航,一邊做股東,一邊幫手做好盤生意,似乎前景秀麗,兼擺脫上半年仍虧損3億元人民幣的差劣業績,故股價三級跳,單日升75%,兩個新加坡股東帳面似乎大賺,但注意股份禁售期3年,代表若不能將東航業務扭轉過來的話,在禁售期過後,股價是否能再企在這個水平呢?抑或最終會變成蝕本生意呢?


至於聯洲國際(048)事件「露底」,畢馬威做獨立評審後,發現應收帳款達22.8億元,部分應收帳可收回存在相當不明朗情況,股價昨日即場大插水,最多不見了58%,收市仍跌46.7%至1.16元,可見無基礎因素支持,如何自吹自擂,始終會露出真相,幸好香港有David Webb。

(9月4日刊於《am730》)

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