Monday, September 10, 2007

煲起港交所

上周五,外匯基金好罕有地公布,增持港交所(388)到需曝光的股權分額達5.88%,即時成為投資界間的熱話。有炒開期指朋友表示,上周五大市「質極唔落」,這邊廂,中國移動(941)在基金換馬及淡友狂踩下力插,那邊廂,港交所就一路逆市大升,暗忖奇怪,到晚上公仔箱播出港府煲起港交所這段消息,先知底蘊。

若果根據恒指服務公司所編制的恒指成份股升跌比重,上周五,中移動跌2.5元,相等恒指下跌110點,成為影響恒指跌幅中最大比重股份。相反,港交所大升10元,等同恒指升43點,亦是升幅比重最大股份,兼幾乎抵銷中移動近40%跌幅,此消彼長,港股牛皮有因。

禤中怡睇番上周六多份報章報道,市場估計或所謂消息人士透露,港府增持港交所,大致離不開兩個可能:1)有策略性目的,包括與內地股市融合鋪路;2)國際大鱷覬覦港交所,為免遭到狙擊,港府先下手為強。

投資界朋友所斟酌的是,港股飽受「外冷內熱」煎熬。儘管內地經濟熱到爆,加上北水南調自由行滯後,帶來很多不明朗因素,另外需注意的是,歐美海外地區受到信貸危機衝擊,中外地區均需處理自身經濟問題,一個拿揑不準,怕且港股一樣受到衝擊。而外匯基金正值這個外冷內熱期,此時此刻「高調」公布增持港交所,在時間上,就巧合了一點。究竟今日港交所股價會否又瘋癲起來,大家又會否揣測外匯基金繼續買上去呢?

投資界朋友又話,除了港府增持港交所外,北水南調自由行消息亦一直牽動不少小散戶投資情緒,港股發展方向,變得非常「人為」兼政策主導。再者,恒指經過多方專業人士倡議,加入國企股之後,目前已變成中西混合體,既有主攻外國的思捷(330)及利豐(494),又有主營內地的多家中資銀行,恒指的質變,已令炒賣指數相關衍生工具的難度增加。所以,倒不如把心一橫離場,轉投海外指數衍生工具算了。

至於外圍因素方面,美國銀行上月底公布,以20億美元(約156億港元)購入美國樓按貸款公司Countrywide可換股優先股,優先股每股行使價18美元,但美股上周五跌逾200點,而Countrywide則收報18.21美元,話咁快就跌近美國銀行的行使價。目前美國房貸、房產及金融股,燙過燙手山芋,若果Countrywide再跌……

禤中怡心想,本港部分中資銀行亦有投資美國次按債券,美國當地信貸市場,以至樓、股再有任何差池,將直接影響中資銀行就美國次按投資所作撥備及業績表現。老實講,港股現時企於歷史高位,並非沙士低位,細膽如禤中怡,都是靠邊站好了。

(9月10日刊於《am730》)

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